286
FXUS61 KBGM 141038
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy and mild conditions today. A dry cold front moves
through on Wednesday, bringing clear skies, breezy northerly
winds and much cooler weather. High pressure will be in control
through Saturday. Temperatures warm up for the weekend, with
rain possibly returning on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The coastal low that has brought rain to the area over the past
day remains spinning off the south Jersey coastline. A few
isolated showers and drizzle are moving over the area, but most
of the rain has dissipated. Rain and drizzle should fully
dissipate by mid morning as a mid and upper level ridge builds
in from the west and pushes the coastal low to the ESE. Clouds
will stick around through most of the day, but the ridge will
push warmer air in from the west with highs climbing into the
low to mid 60s. Lows Tuesday night will be seasonable, in the
low to mid 40s.

On Wednesday, a surface high builds into the Great Lakes and a
trough slides into Newfoundland. This will push a dry cold front
through the area with northerly winds as we are sandwiched
between these two features. Winds will pick up after the frontal
passage, with gusts up to 25mph through the day on Wed.
Temperatures will be cooler than Tuesday, reaching the mid to
upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday night will see a return of cold temps as we sit under
northerly flow and Canadian air pumped into the region. Lows
will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Our growing season has
ended for most of the region, but Yates, Seneca and Cayuga
counties in NY and Lackawanna and Luzerne in PA remain in the
growing season for another week. Temps in these areas currently
look to be just cool enough for frost to form, but winds are
currently too active to get a wide spread frost going over these
areas. We will monitor the changes here and issue frost
advisories if needed.

Thursday will see dry conditons, clear skies, and temps in the
low to mid 50s as we sit under high pressure. Thursday night
is currently forecast to be colder than Wed night as we remain
under high pressure and northerly flow. Temps are expected to
will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across most of the area,
with the aforementioned growing season counties seeing mid 30s.
The difference here is with the center of the surface high
closer to the area, winds will be light to calm and frost will
have a much better chance at forming. We will continue to
monitor how the forecast evolves and will issue the necessary
headlines if conditions warrant them.

High pressure remains in control Friday and Friday night,
keeping us with seasonable temperatures and dry conditions.
Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer as winds shift
from northerly to SSW as the ridge axis moves overhead and
pushes a warmer airmass into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ridge axis will slide east of the area on Saturday, pushing
much warmer air into the region, with mid 60s to low 70s
possible. With the ridge moving east of the area, a deep trough
will dig into the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday.
Timing, location and strength of the trough are still uncertain,
but guidance is moving toward a solution that pushes a cold
front and rain into the region sometime on Sunday. Temps ahead
of the front will once again be warm for Sunday, but on Monday,
behind the front, a 10-15 degree drop is expected, with highs in
the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Lingering low ceilings will be slow to lift this morning. Most
sites should lift to VFR by the afternoon with KITH and KBGM
hanging on to the ceilings the longest. Potential for valley
fog again tonight with the highest chances at KELM in the
typical 06-12Z timeframe.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley fog
each morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK/MWG