025
FXUS61 KBGM 161850
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
150 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Lake effect snow showers will continue through Monday night.
A weak area of low pressure passes to our south Tuesday night
with high pressure building into the region behind it. The high
pressure will give way to several low pressure systems tracking
into the Great Lakes later this week bringing showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Fairly widespread rain and snow showers are moving northwest to
southeast across the region. Currently these are driven by
somewhat steep low level lapse rates and moisture off of Lake
Ontario. With the loss of instability tonight the precipitation
should organize into narrower bands. Temperatures will continue
to drop into the mid and upper 20`s overnight which will allow
the snow to accumulate with possible slick spots. We have also
seen a few wind gusts near 45 mph this afternoon and this
potential should continue into the early evening hours before
the pressure gradient relaxes.

West to northwest flow should continue to advect moisture off
of Lake Ontario through Monday night. SLight changes in wind
direction should allow the bands of lake effect snow to vary
some in location, limiting total accumulations in any one spot.
Leaned more toward the RGEM with the QPF given typical
performance with lake effect snow. Ratios should be reduced
somewhat during the day, closer to 10:1 given borderline
temperatures near freezing on Monday with 15:1 or so values at
night. Overall, this did not change the expected totals with
some 3-6, locally 8 inch amounts in the advisory area over the
course of a few days. Temperatures Monday night should fall into
the 20`s again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

A little lake effect snow may linger. Still watching a weak low
passing to our south. A few models and ensemble members bring
the northern edge of precipitation into the Wyoming valley and
Poconos. Given the dry airmass in place wetbulbing should occur
so mainly light snow would fall if precipitation occurs. Daytime
temperatures with some breaks in the clouds should get into the
upper 30`s and 40`s then fall into the 20`s again Tuesday
night. Wednesday looks like the driest day with high pressure
building in and temperatures a few degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

High pressure gives way to several low pressure systems tracking
through the Great Lakes late this week into the weekend. Model
guidance still shows some timing and location differences with
these systems. Either way, warm moist air will stream into the
region with several rounds of showers. Highs should push into
the low 50`s by Friday for most of the area with lows warming
into the 40`s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain showers have been gradually transitioning to snow showers
this afternoon and will continue to do so. These snow showers
and lake effect clouds will bring MVFR restrictions to KRME,
KSYR, KITH, and possibly KBGM. Brief IFR restrictions cannot be
ruled out at these terminals if a brief heavier snow shower
moves over the terminal. The restrictions are expected to
persist through most of the period (at least through 18Z
Monday). Although a brief snow shower or flurry cannot be
totally ruled out at KAVP and KELM, these two terminals should
remain VFR throughout the period.

Gusty northwest winds are expected throughout the period. Wind
gusts of 35-40kts are expected this afternoon, with 20-30kt
gusts expected tonight and through Monday morning/early
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon...Scattered snow showers and lake effect
clouds, with associated restrictions, mainly for KITH, KBGM,
and KSYR. Winds still gusty.

Tuesday...Lingering lake effect clouds at most of the Central NY
terminals with associated restrictions. Mainly VFR for KAVP and
KELM.

Tuesday night...Low chance for snow showers and restrictions at
KAVP.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Rain showers likely with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ015>018-022>025-036-
     037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ017-018-
     025-036-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG