334
FXUS61 KBGM 011801
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
201 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow dry conditions and comfortable
temperatures to persist through midweek. A cold front moves
through Thursday into early Friday, bringing cooler
temperatures as we head into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will remain sprawled across the northeast U.S and
Great Lakes region into Tuesday with the surface high slowly
drifting east off the New England coast. A weak upper air low will
develop and spin over NY and PA tonight and especially Tuesday
afternoon. This feature could set off a few sprinkles with the days
heating on Tuesday as it is still quite chilly aloft.  Model
soundings show a little instability but a lot of dry air.  NBM
maintains less than 15 % POPs which looks reasonable.

For Wednesday, upper level low moves into the upper Great Lakes
and will propel a surface cold front toward NY and PA. Most of
Wednesday will remain fair with southerly winds picking up and
milder temperatures.

Then for Thursday, Upper level low pretty much stalls out north of
the upper Great Lakes and pushes a short wave into the eastern Great
Lakes to Ohio Valley. This will force another cold front into the
region. With southerly winds prevailing and strong moisture
advection ahead of the front there will be some CAPE on the order of
200-500 J/kg MU CAPE. Shear will be decent with 0-6 km around 30
kts, 0-1 km around 20 knots. Model soundings are showing tall and
skinny CAPE as mid-lapse rates are not that impressive for
severe weather. PWATs are up to 1.5. GFS suggests chances for
locally heavy rain with widespread 1 to 2 rain amounts in
central NY and northeast PA. Euro has less than 1, CMC .5 to
1,Euro AI was .5 to 1, Euro ens mean was .5 to 1, GFS ens
mean also was .5 to 1, Euro AI mean was mainly less than .5.
Euro EFT and SOT dont show anything significant for heavy rain.
For now, we will monitor and use NBM for POPs and timing as it
looks reasonable. WPC has a marginal risk for Excessive Rain
which is reasonable at this juncture.

Then for Thursday night into Friday, after the cold front moves
through, the flow goes southwesterly as cooler air seeps in.
This will limit lake effect rain showers in our forecast area
Friday. Euro doesnt pull the heights down as much as the GFS so
this means a difference in the timing of the next short wave,
and next stronger cool front and POPs into the weekend and
early next week. The Euro ens brings another cool front through
Friday night and Saturday with high pressure building in by next
Monday the 8th. The GFS ens is quicker with the front and
brings high pressure in quicker and so it is drier. For now,
given a lot of uncertainty, we will stick with NBM.
Temperatures again will be trending down by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. With
higher humidity today, ELM has a better chance of fog so IFR to
near LIFR restrictions were added after 8Z. It looks like the
fog should clear out of the valleys by 13Z with VFR conditions
tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday and Thursday night...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms moving into the region.

Friday...Lingering showers possible, with associated
restrictions.

Saturday...Some low stratus and showers possible with low to
the north and higher winds, mostly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJN
DISCUSSION...DJN
AVIATION...AJG