911
FXUS61 KBGM 162311
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
711 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region and keep it dry through
Saturday. A mature storm system moving in from the west will
cause our next chance of showers Saturday night. Sunday looks
wet as a warm front, then a cold front pass, generating several
rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. Another cold front
will arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As high pressure builds in, the pressure gradient will slacken
and we should also stratify/stabilize overnight. That will
slacken the wind. The clear skies and light/no wind will allow
temps to dip close to freezing, but mainly in the mid 30s in
the parts of the CWA which have not yet had a freeze. That all
means frost should form. We have added the northern 4 zones to
the going frost advisory for the southern couple for the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
After the frost melts, we should have bright sunshine and light
wind (less than 10 MPH, at least). Very dry air (30-something
dewpoints) will make it feel a little chilly, but temps should
get ~5F warmer than Thurs, maxing out in the 50s for most and
near 60F in the southern valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high pressure area overhead will slide slowly to the east on
Saturday. As moisture and warmer air aloft stream north and
east out of the OH valley, a couple of very light
showers/sprinkles could fall over the NE half of the CWA Sat
night. But, the PoPs increase on Sun aftn and peak Sun night and
early Monday. A rather mature storm system will move through
then, and could make some thunder, too. Precip totals out that
far are not a high certainty, but 0.5-0.75" looks like a good
first guess at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00z update... A very dry air mass over CNY/NEPA will lead to a
high likelihood of VFR/unrestricted conditions throughout the
valid TAF period.

One small fly in the ointment could be early Friday morning
valley fog in the vicinity of KELM. However, we feel the
probability of this is relatively low (20-30%), given the dry
nature of the air mass, lack of recent rainfall and associated
ground-level moisture, and well mixed conditions in the upper
part of the boundary layer. A locally developed analog tool
reveals only a small minority of fog cases (3/15) in the 06-12z
period, given similar wind, moisture, and temperature profiles
to what is expected. For now, we`ve reduced the time period of
fog/IFR restrictions to just the 10-12z time slot, and may
consider removing this altogether in subsequent updates.

After diminishing/light surface flow tonight, winds should
increase somewhat to 5-8 kt out of the NW on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley
fog in the morning.

Sunday and Monday...MVFR or IFR Restrictions likely (greater
than 70 pct chance) with a front moving through, especially
later in the day Sunday into Monday.

Tuesday...A few MVFR/IFR restrictions possible (40-50 pct)
during the day Tuesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     PAZ044-047.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ015>018.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...