539
FXUS61 KBGM 290632
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
232 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front currently moving west to east across the area will
continue bringing light rain showers through this morning, with
cooler air moving in through the day. High pressure with dry
and progressively milder weather is expected for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
230 AM Update...

 Now through This Evening...

Currently, a cold front sweeps across our area, bringing light
rain showers on radar. Not much in terms of rainfall has been
produced. As of 2 AM, only 0.10 inch has been reported at RME,
and 0.02 at SYR. The front will continue to erode as is
progresses eastward, with estimated additional rainfall being
only up to 0.05 inch. There may be some scattered lake effect
rain showers through the morning, but tapers off later this
afternoon as surface high pressure begins to push in from the
west. Well below average temperatures expected for today after
the passage of the cold front. High temperatures are only
expected to reach into the low to high 60s, with some higher
elevations only in the high 50s, and NE PA valleys in the low
70s.

 Tonight through Wednesday...

From Friday night through mid-week next week, mainly dry
conditions expected with weak surface high pressure. The upper
level low moves northeast and becomes semi-stationary just north
of New England, and we`ll sit under a broad, long wave trough
with a weak surface high pressure through mid-week. With this,
we`ll see a warming trend, going from the low-mid 60s today to
the mid-upper 70s on Wednesday.

 Wednesday Night through Thursday...

The upper level trough deepens as a low dives south from Canada,
but model guidance begins to differ greatly going into the
longer term periods. There`s general agreement that the next
frontal boundary will come through Wednesday night, but
confidence is low on timing due to differing solutions. Remained
with the NBM solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain showers are currently moving through CNY as a cold front
starts to make its way in from the NW. Ceilings have remained
higher than guidance suggested earlier, with VFR conditions
across the region. Ceilings are expected to fall in a few hours
to MVFR/Fuel Alt across CNY. ITH is the only terminal currently
with IFR ceilings expected as winds should blow some enhanced
moisture up to the terminal from Cayuga Lake. VFR conditions
should return to the area by mid morning as the trough moves
east of the area and high pressure builds in from the west.

AVP should see some tempo MVFR ceilings from 10-12z, then become
VFR for the rest of the TAF period.


Outlook...

Friday evening...Lingering lake effect showers possible, mainly
across CNY

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building in and lake effect winding down.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC