757
FXUS61 KBGM 101849
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
249 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions are expected tonight, but clouds will increase
and the chance for rain showers returns this weekend into and
early next week. Seasonable temperatures will be in place
through Sunday before a brief cool down Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the area will slide to the east tonight and
clears skies in place through the rest of the afternoon will
give way to an increase in clouds. With the flow out of the
south-southeast, it won`t be nearly as cold tonight with lows in
the upper 30s to the mid 40s. There still can be a few areas of
frost overnight in portions of N. Oneida County and the
Catskills.

A stacked area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes
will push into western NY tomorrow. This system will draw up
moisture from the south from a developing coastal low well off
to our south. This will lead to some spotty showers for the
start of the weekend, especially during the afternoon. With
plenty of cold air aloft with the stacked low, some small hail
with any shower cannot be ruled out over western parts of the
CWA close to the center of the low. High temperatures tomorrow
will primarily be in the low to mid 60s, so a seasonably warm
day. Shower chances increase Saturday night as the low over the
NY continues to drift south and east and the coastal system
continues to come together with more moisture streaming north.
Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low will slowly move from the Carolinas up the mid-
Atlantic coast Sunday into Sunday night and will absorb the low
over NY/PA. Scattered showers are expected to persist during
this time, however, as the energy from the weakening low to the
north transfers to the coastal system, there can be a lull in
the activity during the daytime on Sunday. With a tightening
pressure gradient developing, winds are expected to increase,
especially over the Poconos and southern Catskills Sunday into
Sunday night.

Sunday night into Monday, there is some uncertainty as to how
far north and how close to the coast the coastal storm will be
and thus how far north and west the main rain shield spreads
into our area during this time. Areas generally east of I-81
have the greatest chance of steady rainfall late Sunday through
Monday before the low begins to slowly pull away to the east.

With a prolonged period of rain chances through Monday, there
is the potential for some beneficial rainfall totals during this
time with a general 0.50-1.00 inch over the CWA. Northeast PA,
especially the Poconos, up through the Catskills have the
potential for up to 2.00 inches of rain, but with this being a
long-duration event, the potential for any flooding issues is
low. Highs Sunday remain seasonable in the 60s, then it will
cool down on Monday into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The aforementioned coastal storm will slowly drift out to sea
on Tuesday as a flattening ridge moves in from the west. With
some uncertainty on the speed of the low`s departure, a low
chance of showers will linger during the day, especially east of
I-81. Beyond Tuesday, drier air does look to make a return
midweek before another wave moves in with a chance of showers
Friday into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to trend
cooler Tuesday through Thursday going from the low and mid 60s
to the lower and mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at
least through 18Z Saturday). The one exception may be at KELM
late tonight/early Saturday morning, where fog may once again
develop. Confidence is not incredibly high in seeing fog there
due to higher clouds moving in from an approaching marine layer
and drier air in place (low temperatures may not get below the
crossover temperature), but kept restrictions in the TAF there
for now for the 08Z-13Z timeframe as it is possible that some
shallow fog may form underneath the deck of higher clouds, and
model guidance does hint at fog formation. A return to VFR
conditions is expected after 13Z there.

One other location of some uncertainty is at KAVP with the
incoming marine layer of clouds tonight. Right now, chances are
that conditions remain VFR, but there is a non-zero chance that
MVFR ceilings could sneak in there. This was left out of the TAF
there for now, but this will be re-evaluated with the 00Z TAF
issuance.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon...Mainly VFR, but MVFR restrictions moving
in later in the afternoon, especially at KAVP. A few rain
showers possible.

Saturday night through Monday...On and off rounds of rain with
associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A few rain showers
cannot be ruled out, especially at the Central NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJG