647
FXUS61 KBGM 100854
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
454 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures return today with high pressure remaining in
place. Rain showers return this weekend and are expected to continue
into early next week. Temperatures will trend cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
450 AM Update:

A quick update was made to add fog to the forecast as
fog/freezing fog has developed in the valleys this morning. This
fog should lift out by mid-morning. Also, a few areas were
running cooler than forecasted, so temperatures were adjusted to
better match the latest observations.

135 AM Update:

A fairly pleasant fall day is in store today as temperatures
will be closer to average with highs in the 50s and low 60s.
High pressure slides east but will remain in control. Winds will
pick up some over the western half of the region as a weak
disturbance associated with an upper low dips south over the
Central Great Lakes. Overnight, skies will start out clear but
sky cover will increase as the disturbance approaches Western NY
and a coastal low begins to develop well south of the region.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s. There may
be some patchy frost in N. Oneida and higher elevations of the
Catskills, but with the cloud cover increasing and breezy winds,
confidence is too low to issue a frost advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weak system that is dropping south will clip NY/PA and merges
with the coastal low this weekend. Spotty showers will be possible
on Saturday as these two systems approach each other. Showers become
more widespread Saturday night into Sunday morning. The coastal low
will slowly move from the Carolinas up to DELMARVA Sunday so showers
are expected to persist through the overnight hours as well. Winds
will become gusty Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens over the
Northeast as the system moves closer to the region.

Saturday will be one of the warmest days over the next week as
temperatures climb into the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s
and low 50s. With rain and clouds over the region, Sunday will be
slightly cooler but most locations should see 60s once again.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The aforementioned coastal low will support additional rain showers
through at least Monday. The low will drift out to sea on Tuesday
as a flattening ridge moves in from the west. Drier conditions
are then expected around midweek, though some weak waves moving
along the zonal flow and a trough north of the region may kick
off spotty showers throughout the rest of the long term forecast
period. Temperatures will generally tend cooler throughout this
period with conditions near or colder than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure is in place with dry conditions with VFR
prevailing at all terminals. ELM has a small chance at IFR fog
but confidence is very low so any restrictions were not put in
the TAFs. Some low clouds try to work into the region after 0Z
this evening but may not be thick or widespread enough to cause
any MVFR cigs.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday morning...Mainly VFR; areas of
morning low clouds/valley fog.

Late Sunday into Monday...Watching a coastal low with showers
possible and associated restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ015>017.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG