439
FXUS61 KBGM 290554
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
154 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers and cooler air will move into the region tonight
and Friday as a cold front passes through the area. High
pressure with dry and progressively milder weather is expected
for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Through Sunday Night):

A rather deep trough and associated surface cold front will move
into the region tonight into Friday morning. This will bring a
batch of rain showers to the area this evening and tonight,
before transitioning to lake effect rain showers Friday
morning. While an isolated embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out this evening, instability will be rather low and there will
be limited low-level moisture. So the overall chance for seeing
any thunderstorms remains on the lower side.

Behind the departing cold front, an anomalously cool airmass
for late August standards will move into the region with 850mb
temperatures falling to around +3C. This, combined with a
northwest flow and warm lake temperatures will result in some
scattered lake effect rain showers on Friday, especially in the
morning across parts of Central NY, perhaps extending into the
Northern Tier of PA. Otherwise, partly sunny conditions are
expected on Friday with high temperatures only in the upper 50s
to upper 60s for Central NY and lower 60s to near 70 across
Northeast PA.

Cool temperatures with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s are
expected for Friday night. With mostly clear skies and
relatively light winds, cannot rule out some patchy frost in the
usual colder spots of the Catskills and Oneida County.

High pressure will largely be in control on Saturday, although
with still a west-northwest flow, cannot rule out a stray lake
effect rain shower in some spots of Central NY. That being said,
most of the area will be dry under mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than Friday, but
still cool (highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s). Dry weather will
then persist on Sunday under sunny skies once again. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Long Term (Monday through Thursday):

High pressure will remain in control for the entire long term
period, which will result in mainly dry conditions to start the
month of September. Cannot rule out a diurnally-driven shower
each afternoon, but the chances are that the entire region
remains dry. By Wednesday night into Thursday, the next trough
and surface cold front will approach the region, which will
bring the next more widespread chance of showers. However, with
this still being basically a week away, a lot can change this
far out. Temperatures in the long term will be near-normal for
this time of the year; with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Rain showers are currently moving through CNY as a cold front
starts to make its way in from the NW. Ceilings have remained
higher than guidance suggested earlier, with VFR conditions
across the region. Ceilings are expected to fall in a few hours
to MVFR/Fuel Alt across CNY. ITH is the only terminal currently
with IFR ceilings expected as winds should blow some enhanced
moisture up to the terminal from Cayuga Lake. VFR conditions
should return to the area by mid morning as the trough moves
east of the area and high pressure builds in from the west.

AVP should see some tempo MVFR ceilings from 10-12z, then become
VFR for the rest of the TAF period.


Outlook...

Friday evening...Lingering lake effect showers possible, mainly
across CNY

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building in and lake effect winding down.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...JTC