236
FXUS61 KBGM 171027
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
627 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening, along with locally heavy rainfall. High
pressure and dry weather returns on Friday and for most of
Saturday. However, more rain showers will be possible Saturday
night through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 AM Update:

Our active weather pattern will continue today as a cold front
pushes through the region this afternoon and evening. Before the
front pushes through, southwesterly flow will increase moisture
and instability out ahead or the front. CAPE increases to about
2000 J/kg from the NYS Thruway on northward and further south
the instability will be weaker with 1200 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE.
Also, westerly flow will be increasing and 0-6km shear
will edge up to near 35kts. A limiting factor with this event
could be weaker mid level lapse rates and this is likely the
reason for not a slight risk from SPC at this time. One thing to
note is the strong helicity that forecast soundings are showing
north of the NYS thruway with the strongest values in Oneida
County. Also, curved hodographs show the potential for rotating
thunderstorms, with possible supercell structure. Although the
main threat with these storms this afternoon will be damaging
winds and hail, the low level helicity can`t be ignored and a
tornado could be possible if everything lines up with
instability and the timing of the shortwave as well.

Any lingering showers quickly end later this evening following
the passage of the cold front as drier and cooler air advects
into the region. High pressure builds in behind the front with
low temperatures overnight expected to be in the mid 50s to mid
60s and highs on Friday only in the low to mid 70s with low
humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
140 AM Update...

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will maintain calm
and clear conditions Friday night. Northwest flow will aid in
dropping overnight temperatures into the 50s for most of the
area, with some spots in northern Oneida dipping into the upper
40s. Mostly sunny skies are expected Saturday morning but
clouds will start to fill in ahead of the next approaching
system. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to
develop Saturday evening into Sunday as a shortwave moves in
from the west. While sounding profiles show somewhat favorable
0-6 km bulk shear, instability appears limited. Overnight
temperatures Saturday will return to the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 AM Update...

Rain showers and thunderstorms will persist into Sunday as
frontal system slowly pushes east. Model guidance suggests the
cold front will pass through the region sometime between Sunday
morning and the afternoon. Drier air moves in Sunday night as
high pressure begins to build over the area. This high will
dominate Monday and Tuesday, keeping conditions quiet and dry.
Northwest flow will also help maintain seasonably comfortable
temperatures. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak upper-
level ridge will shift eastward, allowing an embedded shortwave
to approach. This feature may bring a return of showers and
thunderstorms sometime midweek, though model guidance continues
to vary on exact timing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning at AVP, BGM and ELM,
but confidence is low on timing and coverage of this MVFR deck.
Conditions return to VFR by mid- late morning, however, some
restrictions will be possible with showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, especially at SYR and RME. Low
confidence with thunderstorm coverage and on the timing, but
storms will likely be widespread further north with impacts at
SYR and RME most likely.


Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK