292
FXUS61 KBGM 310642
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
242 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry conditions and comfortable temperatures
through midweek. A cold front passes through Thursday, bringing
rain showers and cooler temperatures through the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
240 AM Update...

An area of surface high pressure continues to slowly push its
way eastward into the area, bringing dry conditions and
comfortable temperatures through around midweek.

The only chance for possible light showers is when a weak upper
level low forms just over the northern portions of Central NY
Tuesday afternoon, where there could be the development of
light rain showers and maybe an isolated storm. This low weakens
quickly and moves out the area later in the day Tuesday.

High pressure conditions are back for Wednesday through early
Thursday morning before a cold front associated with a large
upper level low passes through, bringing rain showers and
chances for isolated storms. Depending on the model, there are
pretty significant differences in the progression speed and
overall arrival time of the front. With these uncertainties, we
remained with the NBM solution for now.

Towards the end of the week, the aforementioned large upper
level low till push south, allowing for a few week shortwaves to
continue chances for rain showers through Friday. With the lack
of instability, there will be low to negligible chances for
storms on Friday. The flow switches to west-southwesterly as the
upper low moves eastward, and chances for lake effect rain
showers is left for over the weekend, which would mainly affect
Central NY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure controls the weather pattern through the TAF
period, bringing mostly clear skies and light winds across the
region.

ELM is expected to see restrictions later tonight as temps cool
and valley fog develops. Boundary layer winds look to weaken
after 10z, which should allow for prevailing IFR/LIFR
conditions to develop as fog sets in. There will be a chance for
TEMPO IFR/LIFR conditions from 8z to 10z as patchy fog develops
in the area. ELM should return to VFR conditions between 12 and
13z. RME also has a chance to see some MVFR visby late tonight,
but confidence was not high enough to include IFR restrictions
as guidance isn`t showing fog occurring and satellite imagery
isn`t showing any fog developing in the area.

Outlook... Sunday Night...VFR, except IFR/LIFR at KELM due to
valley fog.

Monday...Morning Valley Fog burns off at KELM by 14z and rest of
day is VFR all terminals.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...some restrictions possible with showers moving into
the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC