031
FXUS61 KBGM 180245
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
945 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will continue through tonight for parts
of Central New York, before ending by Tuesday afternoon. A weak
area of low pressure passes by to the south Tuesday night,
which may bring some light snow to Northeast Pennsylvania. High
pressure will then result in dry conditions Wednesday through
Thursday, before another system brings the next chance for rain
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

940 PM Update

Lake effect snow continues to trend downward. MRMS and IR
satellite is indicating a short fetch over Lake Ontario with
little to no upstream connection to Georgian Bay expected
through most of the overnight period. BUFKIT forecast soundings
from the 00z HRRR and NAM show the snow growth layer well above
the lake effect moisture and lift; therefore snow to liquid
ratios should stay on the lower side tonight ( < 12:1, and
likely less than 10:1 in the lower elevations. Temperatures are
holding above freezing throughout most of Onondaga county
between 33 to 38 degrees at 930 PM EST...with some of the higher
elevations locations further inland/southeast right around
freezing now. Overall, we are now only expecting localized
additional snow accumulations up to an inch or two over the
higher elevations by Tuesday morning. Therefore, decided to
cancel the winter weather advisory as confidence continue to
increase that most locations will see little to no impact from
the snow overnight.

725 PM Update

Latest satellite, radar and model trends have been much lower
and less intense with the lake effect snow bands off of Lake
Ontario. Updated PoPs a little lower based on the latest HRRR,
3km NAM and NBM guidance...but main adjustment was to lower QPF
and snow amounts overnight. CMC regional model seems to be much
too high with QPF/snow amounts, so was treated as an outlier
for this forecast. Temperatures are also remaining mild well
into the mid-30s for the lower elevations this evening, and are
only expected to slowly fall overnight with lows in the mid-20s
to lower 30s. This will help to mitigate snow accumulations
along the lake Ontario plain and deeper valleys too (at least
initially). Overall, now expecting only an additional 0.5-2
inches of snow in the advisory areas by mid-morning, Tuesday...
with a localized 3 inch amount still possible in the most
persistent narrow bands.

Previous Discussion Below

A continued cold northwesterly flow (850mb temperatures around -9C)
on the backside of an area of low pressure located over the
Canadian Maritimes, combined with the Georgian Bay connection
continues to bring lake effect snow showers to parts of Central
NY this afternoon. The flow has been slowly shifting to more
west-northwesterly, which has allowed for the snow showers to
gradually shift to the north/towards the NY Thruway corridor and
away from the Twin Tiers/southern Finger Lakes. This will set
the stage for another round of steady lake effect snow for areas
along and just south of the NY Thruway corridor the remainder
of today through tonight.

Orographic lift from the terrain will allow for localized
higher snow accumulations. In general, additional snow
accumulations for central Onondaga county through much of
Madison county will range between 2 and 5 inches, but localized
additional amounts of 6 to 7 inches in those upslope areas
cannot be completely ruled out. Meanwhile areas immediately
surrounding this band of lake effect snow will likely only
receive 1-2 inches of snow, with amounts quickly becoming less
than a half inch only a few miles away. Elsewhere, while a few
flurries cannot be ruled out, mainly precipitation-free weather
is expected through tonight, with even some partial clearing
across Northeast PA. Lows are expected to be in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

In terms of headlines, we were able to cancel the Winter Weather
Advisory for Tompkins and northern Oneida counties with this
early afternoon forecast package, but the Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect until 10AM Tuesday for Onondaga,
Madison, Cortland, Chenango, and southern Cayuga counties. With
the lake effect snow showers still shifting northward, it is
likely that Cortland, Chenango, and southern Cayuga counties
will be also be able to be canceled early and this will be re-
evaluated with our upcoming forecast updates.

Any remaining lake effect snow showers will end by late Tuesday
morning or early Tuesday afternoon as the flow becomes westerly
and weak high pressure briefly moves in. Temperatures are
expected to be a bit milder (but still below normal) with highs
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Skies will remain mostly cloudy,
but there may be a few breaks of sun at times.

A quick-moving weak area of low pressure is expected to pass by
to our south Tuesday night. It will be a close call regarding if
the precipitation shield makes it far enough north to clip
Northeast PA, or if it will all remain south of our area. If
precipitation is able to overcome the dry air and make it into
Northeast PA, light snow will be possible, perhaps mixing with
rain in the Wyoming Valley. That being said, PoPs remain on the
low-side and the odds are greater that it remains snow-free
during this timeframe. Lows are expected to be in the lower 20s
to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level flow pattern will become more zonal Wednesday
through Thursday and surface high pressure will build in. As a
result, conditions look to be precipitation-free during this
timeframe. In fact, Wednesday will likely be partly to mostly
sunny for much of the area, which will be a welcome change after
a prolonged cloudy period of weather. The clouds will return on
Thursday though, ahead of the next system. Highs on Wednesday
and Thursday are expected to be in the 40s for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A frontal system is expected to move through the area Thursday
night through Friday, which is expected to bring the next chance
for rain showers to the area. Temperatures should be warm enough
for precipitation to be mostly rain, with perhaps a brief wintry
mix at the onset of precipitation. One thing to note though;
latest guidance is starting to trend drier for this period,
especially the ECMWF. Right now, stuck with the NBM for PoPs,
but if this drier trend continues, PoPs will need to be reduced
with future forecast packages.

Forecast uncertainty is high for the weekend into early next
week with it being uncertain regarding if some lake effect
precipitation or showers from a few passing shortwaves occur,
or if ridging and surface high pressure may keep conditions
mainly dry. Either way, it looks like there will be a gradual
warming trend in temperatures with some areas possibly reaching
the lower 50s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions across the forecast terminals currently. Some
MVFR snow showers are still expected to impact SYR overnight,
beginning between 00-04z, then prevailing for the rest of the
overnight into Tuesday morning. There is a low chance for a
period of IFR vsbys at SYR, but probability was too low to
include in the taf at this time. Otherwise, RME, ITH and BGM
could see a period of MVFR CIGs overnight into early Tuesday
morning, before lifting back to low end VFR conditions. A few
light snow showers or flurries are also possible overnight at
these terminals, with minimal visibility restrictions expected.

Tuesday will feature mainly VFR conditions, with CIGs lifting
and scattering out by afternoon or early evening.

West-northwest winds 5-10 kts overnight into Tuesday, with a
few gusts up to 15 kts possible at times. Winds become light
and variable toward or after sunset Tuesday afternoon/evening

Outlook...

Tuesday evening through Thursday...Mainly VFR, except brief
restrictions possible KAVP Tuesday night as a weak disturbance
passes with a small chance of snow showers.

Thursday night through Saturday...Rain showers likely during
the day and possibly a wintry mix overnight with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BJT/MJM