177
FXUS61 KBGM 291754
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
154 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level low will move east of the region bringing an end
to the spotty showers tonight. High pressure then builds for the
weekend and most of next week. High pressure gives way to a
frontal passage by later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A broad upper level low will slowly move east across northern New
England as high pressure builds into the region at the surface this
weekend. Some slight instability and weak moisture flow off of Lake
Ontario keeps the potential of spotty rain showers into the evening
hours tonight. Skies should clear out with patchy valley fog
possible yet again overnight. Another chilly night with lighter
winds and clear skies with lows in the 40`s.

Slightly steeper low level lapse rates in the daytime this weekend
should fire off some scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. Overall
though the weekend is looking mostly sunny with a slow warming trend
starting.

Surface high pressure currently looks to hang firm till about
Wednesday. Once the high shifts north and east of the region A slow
warming trend with a bit higher humidity should occur due to
southerly flow. Highs by the middle of next week should get close to
80 with lows back up in the 50`s.

Actually fairly good ensemble agreement for a frontal boundary to
sweep through the region with low pressure forming out ahead of it
to warrant the mention of showers Thursday into Friday. This should
drop the high temperatures slightly each day as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Most taf sites have now returned to VFR this afternoon, with ITH
still showing a bkn MVFR CIG. Even here, based on satellite
trends expect improvement to VFR conditions by 20z. VFR
conditions are then expected to prevail areawide into this
evening with decreasing clouds. Winds will be breezy this
afternoon, out of the west-northwest at 8-15 kts with a few
gusts close to 20 kts at times.

After midnight and into the predawn hours Saturday, there is a
good chance for IFR/LIFR fog formation at ELM. High pressure is
expected to build in from the west, with winds diminishing and
decoupling. Overnight lows will be cold here, well below the
crossover temperature and well below local water temperatures in
the nearby river. This should facilitate river valley,
radiational fog formation. Best chance for the lower VSBYs/CIGs
should be between about 08-12z early Saturday morning. The fog
should lift and scatter out by 13-1330z. Our remaining taf
sites should remain VFR overnight and through Saturday.

Winds will become light and variable overnight into Saturday
morning, then NW at 8-15 kts on Saturday once again.

Outlook...

Saturday Afternoon through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high
pressure building in and lake effect winding down. Valley fog
possible at or near ELM most mornings.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...MJM