807
FXUS61 KBGM 311726
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
126 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow dry conditions and comfortable
temperatures to persist through midweek. Eventually the high
pressure will yield to a showery cold front Thursday into early
Friday, bringing cooler temperatures as we head into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
120 PM Update...
Sprawling dry high pressure is in charge for now, but a frontal
system will arrive Thursday with showers and a chance of
thunder.

Surface high pressure is centered on the Great Lakes region and
continues to ooze its way over our area. It will migrate to the
Northeast Monday and Tuesday, yet its dry comfortable air mass
will remain in our region. However there is a little more to
the story when looking above the surface. It has become
apparent that weak mid level low pressure will form around the
Midatlantic Coast to induce easterly flow aloft; which along
with surface low pressure well offshore underneath the high,
will be enough for a marine layer deck of clouds to press in as
far west as about the I-81 corridor Monday, tucked under a
subsidence inversion between 5000-10000 feet. Additionally, at
500mb an upper low will pinch off of the current upper trough,
and wobble its way up our area late Monday into Tuesday. This
may allow additional clouds above 15000 feet. Long story short,
not the cleanest high pressure; there could be presence of one
or two deck of clouds at times, especially east of I-81.
Generally speaking, highs will be generally 70s Monday-Tuesday,
though clouds will probably place the lower numbers towards the
Poconos-Catskills. The edge of the departing upper low Tuesday
could cause a spotty shower or storm towards the Mohawk Valley,
but vast majority of the area will stay dry.

By Wednesday we get into return flow on the back side of the
surface high, and flattening to southwesterly flow aloft. That
in addition to sunshine, especially in the first half of the
day, may get some of our lower elevations to eclipse 80 degrees.
Meanwhile, in the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes a upper
trough will be digging in out of the Canadian Prairies, cutting
off a deep upper low. An amplified pattern like this tends to
progress slower than models initially indicate, and thus it is
not surprising to see rain chances continuing to delay. That
said, high confidence exists that this system will bring
moisture out ahead of it and eventual rain for our region
in the later Thursday to early Friday timeframe. Elevated
precipitable water values, and deep moisture with near
unidirectional south-southest flow with a moist-adiabatic look
to model soundings, point to at least a little potential for
heavy rain. Most of our area can take quite a bit of rain, but
we will need to consider typical poor-drainage locations such
as urban areas for the potential of localized high water. We
will continue to monitor trends on that. The National Blend of
Models suggest 30-50 percent odds of more than an inch of rain
in the central to especially eastern part of our area with this
system, and 15-30 percent probability of more than 1.5 inches.
Generally speaking, the same area has potential for embedded
thunder from modest instability, albeit tall-and-narrow
Convective Available Potential Energy.

After 70s-near 80 Thursday, cold air advection in the wake of
the front is forecast to dip that range to more like mid
60s-mid 70s Friday-Saturday. The somewhat cooler air may be
coming more from a west-southwest direction initially and thus
post-frontal lake effect showers and clouds may be pretty
limited. That said, a renewed shot of chilly air may drop in
from the northwest during the second half of the weekend for
another notch down in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF period
except at ELM where patchy valley fog is expected to develop again
late tonight into Monday morning with IFR to LIFR conditions
expected. Any fog will lift and scatter out by around 13z Monday.

Scattered cumulus clouds between about 050-080 ft agl will be around
the area this afternoon and early evening. Skies should then turn
mainly clear overnight. Additional scattered to broken mid and high
level (VFR) clouds then move into the area from the east on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Afternoon and night...VFR Expected. Chance for valley fog at
ELM late.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday and Thursday night...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms moving into the region.

Friday...Lingering showers possible, with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...JTC/MJM