899
FXUS61 KBGM 052324
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
724 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates and continues the dry weather pattern with
well above normal temperatures across the region through
Monday. A passing cold front will bring a batch of rain and
possibly a thunderstorm late Tuesday into early Wednesday,
followed by dry and cooler weather through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and dry weather continues through the near term period.

An expansive upper level ridge of high pressure remains firmly
in place aloft, with full sunshine. At the surface, high
pressure is leaning offshore which has placed our region in
light south-southwest return flow. With the clear sky and very
light wind, we are getting wide diurnal ranges between cool
mornings and warm afternoons with highs roughly 20 degrees above
climatology. Dry air continues to mix down during peak heating
hours, allowing minimum relative humidity values in the 30s
percent range for much of the area; even some upper 20s towards
Steuben-Yates counties. Fire weather concerns thankfully are
being mitigated by the very light winds. One Climatology note is
that Syracuse just happens to have a somewhat lower daily
record high for today of 85 degrees, set 3 different times;
other daily records surrounding today are mostly upper 80s.
Thus, it is quite reachable this afternoon and is forecast to be
tied/could even be broken. Binghamton and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
daily records though are still 4-6 degrees higher than
expectations for this afternoon.

With warm air advection continuing, temperatures will not be
quite as cool as prior nights; generally upper 40s to upper 50s
under a clear sky and nearly full moon. As typical, a bit of
patchy valley fog may occur towards dawn, especially Twin Tiers.

Very similar conditions are anticipated Monday. The small change
will be the upper ridge now also leaning offshore, getting us
into southwesterly flow aloft which may allow for high thin
clouds to skim the area from any very weak embedded waves.
However this will not rally affect the overall mostly sunny
warm nature of the day with highs of upper 70s-lower 80s and
again fairly low afternoon relative humidity.

Southwesterly flow will increase in a pre-frontal environment
Monday night, along with increasing high clouds, to yield a very
mild night; lows in lower 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A well-advertised frontal system will bring a welcome batch of
rain and perhaps isolated thunder during the midweek period,
followed by cooler weather.

An upper trough will amplify while pressing into Eastern Canada,
to Great Lakes-Northeast during this period. Models continue to
converge on frontal passage timing to be around Tuesday evening,
and thus one more anomalously warm day with highs of mid
70s-near 80 even with thickening clouds, increasing dewpoints,
and eventually encroaching rain. Ribbon of elevated precipitable
water values around an inch-and-a-half will pool ahead of the
front, with some connection all the way to the Gulf. Mid-level
lapse rates will be poor yet some instability continues to be
projected in the models, at least to the western Twin Tiers-
Finger Lakes-NY Thruway corridor. Thus there could be embedded
thunder Tuesday afternoon as the front approaches. Farther east
the frontal timing will be late and thus diurnally-driven
instability will be pretty much non-existent. That said, the
right entrance region of an upper jet will caused forced ascent
as the front and its moisture continue through the region
overnight.

Probabilities for a decent rain out of this continue to nudge
higher, given the set up along with moist-adiabatic thermal
profiles and resultant efficient rainfall production. Forecasts
generally run from two-thirds of an inch to an inch-and-a-
quarter, with the higher amounts towards Central New York and
especially NY Thruway corridor northward which frankly is right
where it is needed the most. Given that another extended period
of dry weather is anticipated after this batch, this is
certainly welcome, and it is a bonus that most of it will fall
during the Tuesday night period. National Blend of Models
probabilities for at least an inch, have ramped into the 40 to
80 percent range, again favoring Central New York.

There will be a solid 14-18 degree drop in highs Wednesday, even
though sunshine will retake the area after some lingering post-
frontal showers early especially Poconos-Catskills. After upper
50s-mid 60s Wednesday, cold air advection will send temperatures
to mainly 30s Wednesday night with a mostly clear sky and
north-northwest wind. Some of the highest terrain area could get
around freezing, and sheltered valleys also could get frost.
Frost formation elsewhere could be limited since there will
still be the stirring wind of cold air advection, but a better
chance will soon follow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Back to dry weather for the remainder of the week, with cooler
temperatures yet also fairly close to climatology.

A large high pressure will move directly over the region
Thursday-Friday, and still at least be dominant even into the
start of the weekend. Ideal radiational cooling set up is likely with
light-calm winds and clear sky Thursday night, and thus our
highest chance for areas of frost with lows of upper 20s-mid
30s; more like upper 30s near the Finger Lakes and Wyoming
Valley. This of course is not at all unusual given the time of
year. That will be bookended by mid 50s-lower 60s for highs
Thursday, and upper 50s-mid 60s on Friday.

Many members of model ensembles depict an upper level wave or
even low attempting to dig into the western Great Lakes
Saturday, yet skewing south with time. Our air mass looks more
likely to remain dry with surface high pressure hanging on.
Thus rain chances are around or less than 10 percent during he
weekend, and the National Blend of Models is around climatology
with highs of 60s-near 70 and lows of mid 30s-lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through Monday with VFR
conditions expected. Valley fog is likely again overnight and
expected to affect KELM with occasional IFR-LIFR conditions from
05Z-12Z.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR. Local LIFR-VLIFR fog possible late.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Flight restrictions expected in periods
of rain. SSW-NW wind shift. Gusts 20 kts.

Thursday and Friday...VFR. Local morning valley fog.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...ES/JAB