686
FXUS61 KBGM 241053
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
653 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Relief from the heat has arrived behind a cold front this
morning, though scattered rain showers will affect much of
central New York through the afternoon. Temperatures will remain
in the upper 60s to middle 70s today, and will warm back to the
80s on Tuesday. Another cold front will bring showers and
thunderstorms back to the area on Wednesday. Dry and fair
weather will prevail Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM Update...
A cold front has pushed east of the area this morning, bringing
breezy west to northwest winds and lowering temperatures and
dewpoints across the region. In other words, relief from the
heat and humidity is here.

However, a rather sharp upper level trough will swing through
the region today, as an associated surface low moves across
northern NY. This will bring plenty of clouds and showers to the
area, though Central NY will be favored for shower coverage.
Partial clearing will push into the Finger Lakes and areas
roughly west of I-81 by early afternoon, with showers pulling
out of eastern areas by evening. Enough weak instability will
develop for some isolated and weak embedded thunderstorms,
especially as the trough axis moves through.

Surface high pressure builds in overnight, and light winds/clear
skies will be ideal for radiational cooling. Temperatures will
drop into the 50s. Despite the lower humidity, valley fog is
expected to develop, especially along the Susquehanna River in
NY and its upper tributaries, where showers will be most
prevalent today.

Fair weather and warmer temperatures can be expected on Tuesday
as high pressure settles east of the area, and southwest flow
returns. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s, but dewpoints
will be in 50s, yielding heat index values at or slightly below
ambient temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update...

The ridge breaks down Tuesday night, bringing zonal flow aloft
and SW flow in the low levels. Warm moist air returns to the
region thanks to this pattern, with overnight lows only falling
into the mid to upper 60s. A weak shortwave looks to push into
the area overnight, bringing a chance for rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms from Oneida county to the Finger Lakes.
Confidence in the showers developing is low given a lack of deep
moisture and the surface high still strong enough to influence
weather of the CWA. Best chance for precip will be north of the
Thruway, but showers across CNY cannot be ruled out.

The next chance for severe weather arrives Wednesday afternoon.
A positively tilted trough will dig into the Mid-Atlantic from
the Great Lakes during the late overnight and morning hours. The
path and tilt of this trough will keep winds mostly WSW over the
area, not allowing the hottest air from the south to make it
into the CWA. Rather, it moves into the Mid- Atlantic and up the
coast into Southern New England. The Twin Tiers, NEPA and the
southern Catskills will still climb into the upper 80s to low
90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This allows for CAPE to climb
into the 2000-2500 j/kg range over this area with 1000-1500 j/kg
to the north. Bulk shear values are also modeled strong, between
35-45kts out of the SW. A mid level shortwave will be the main
driver of afternoon showers and storms and how far south this
feature is as it crosses the CWA will determine the area with
the highest chances for severe weather. Currently, guidance has
it crossing central PA into southern NY. This puts the
Twin Tiers, NEPA and southern Catskills in the severe weather
Goldilocks zone. A shift north or south of the shortwave would
thus move this zone according, so we will be paying close
attention to it.

Shower and thunderstorm chances remain through the overnight
hours as the cold front associated with the trough moves through
the area. This is another feature we will be watching closely as
guidance has sped up its arrival into the CWA over the past
couple of days and if it can sync up a little better with the
shortwave ahead of it, severe chances will increase across the
area. With the front pushing through during the early overnight
hours, temps will fall into the mid to upper 50s over NY and low
to mid 60s over PA.

A strong ridge will build into the region Thursday, bringing NW
flow and a shot of Canadian air, keeping temperatures cool and
skies mostly clear. Highs will be in the 70s, with very low
humidity. The high pressure center moves right over the CWA
Thursday night, allowing for efficient radiational cooling that
push temps down into the the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM Update...

High pressure holds on through Friday, bringing a very nice end
to the work week. The weekend sees a return to active weather
unfortunately as a positively tilted upper level trough moves
into the region from the Great Lakes. A warm front and shortwave
pushing through Saturday followed by a cold front on Sunday
will allow for rain and thunderstorm chances through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower ceilings have wrapped into the area ahead of an
approaching upper level trough. Expect MVFR to fuel-alt ceilings
to persist for a few hours then gradually improve through the
morning hours, with VFR persisting by afternoon. Scattered rain
showers will drop visby to 4 to 6SM at times through early
afternoon.

High pressure will bring drier conditions and clearing skies
through the overnight hours. Valley fog is expected late tonight
into Tuesday morning, especially in areas that receive the most
showers today. ELM is tricky...rain showers will mainly be
focused to the east today, but with radiational cooling,
temps should still drop to the saturation point, so light
fog/mist seems warranted at this time despite low confidence in
greater restrictions.

Winds will be a little breezy through late morning, generally
NW 12 to 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots at times.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR likely, except valley fog Tuesday morning.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL/MPH