594
FXUS61 KBGM 140637
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
237 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few days of dry weather, showers return for the weekend.
There will likely be a brief dry period to start next week, but
the pattern will become more active again, with shower chances
increasing through the week. Temperatures will be cooler this
weekend, but then trend warmer early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

230 AM Update...

Showers continue this morning as a stationary front remains
draped over Central PA. This front will continue to slowly drift
south today and conditions will dry out from north to south
during the afternoon and evening hours. Although a wetting rain
is likely for most of the region this morning, areas north of
the NYS Thruway corridor will see little to no rain today.
Mostly cloudy conditions will keep high temperatures cool over
most of the region with highs across the Southern Tier and
NEPA in the mid to upper 60s. However, the northern half of the
CWA should see temperatures climb into the low 70s with some
breaks of sun possible in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers are once again possible overnight, with another
shortwave situated over the Midwest pushes eastward into the
Ohio Valley, but shower activity will be dependent on where the
stationary front ends up today.

Sunday will be dependent again on where the stationary front
ends up. There is a chance the area could stay mostly dry on
Sunday, with the greatest potential for rain expected to be in
NE PA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

230 AM Update:

East-southeast winds will keep clouds and possibly some light
rain and drizzle across NE PA and into the Southern Catskills Sunday
night.

Much of the same is expected on Monday with slightly warmer
conditions as there may be occasional breaks of sun. An isolated
shower will still be possible on Monday as a weak short wave
pushes in from the west. Southwesterly flow will at least
increase temperatures back into the 70s for most of the region.
Cloudy conditions will remain overnight Monday and overnight
lows will only dip into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

240 PM Update:

The weather pattern becomes more summer-like Tuesday through
Thursday with deep southwesterly flow pumping in warm and humid
air. This will allow temperatures to warm- up each day with
widespread 80s for highs expected by Wednesday and Thursday.
Subtle shortwaves combined with diurnal heating will bring a
chance of showers and some thunderstorms each day, which could
impact high temperatures if they become widespread enough.

By late Thursday or Thursday night, a cold front will move
through the region, which will bring more widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. This will also bring somewhat cooler
conditions by Friday (highs in the mid 70s to near 80), along
with an additional chance for some showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain showers expected through at least the morning hours with
associated restrictions impacting all terminals. IFR and lower
conditions are expected at ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP today. Confidence is
high for IFR at ELM, ITH and BGM with low ceilings as the
widespread rain arrives. AVP should see IFR later in the
this morning or early afternoon.

SYR and RME are tricky as guidance differs as to how far north
the rain showers make early this morning. Seems like there will
be at least a few showers that allow for a chance of MVFR
conditions.

Later in the day, there is a chance that ceiling rise above IFR
at ELM, ITH, AVP and BGM, but confidence is low at this time, so
kept forecast just above at IFR at ELM and BGM and kept the IFR
through the day at ITH and AVP.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC/MPK