477
FXUS61 KBGM 151135
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
635 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will continue to impact portions of
the region through early Thursday morning. Additional snow
showers are possible on Thursday due to a weak clipper system.
High pressure and dry weather finally returns on Friday, but
another system may bring a wintry mix of precipitation to the
area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

630 AM Update:

Lake effect snow showers have been consistent over Broome and
Tioga counties this morning. Overnight, 1 - 2 inches fell and
localized amounts of up to another inch will be possible in the
next couple hours around the greater Binghamton area. An SPS for
Broome and Tioga County has been issued through 8 AM this
morning due to slick travel on back roads this morning, but main
main roads are mostly clear at this time based on webcams across
the area.

330 AM Update:

Northwesterly flow continues to push lake effect snow showers
into the Finger Lakes Region and as far south as the Southern
Tier this morning. Lake effect snow will remain fairly light
through most of the day with a brief lull for Onondaga County.
However, another organized lake effect will likely develop this
afternoon as the flow starts to turn westerly once again. This
shift in flow will allow the lake effect snow to shift back to
the north through the NY Thruway corridor and then eventually
back into portions of Oneida County. However, the bands of snow
will be on a weakening trend. By tonight, weak ridging will
move in and allow for any remaining lake effect snow showers to
dissipate or at least shift north of our region.

Due to no more heavy lake effect snow expected in Northern
Oneida, the warning has been cancelled with this update. All
other winter weather headlines remain intact.

On Thursday, a weak clipper system will push into the region,
however it is pretty moisture starved. Temperatures will remain
cold and spotty snow is expected, but amounts will be light,
with less than an inch for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update...

Short wave trough continues to move through the region Thursday
night with lingering snow showers. Showers will be spotty in nature
as feature is moisture starved. Temperatures under the trough will
continue to remain cool with overnight lows in the teens. Trough
makes an exit by Friday morning with an upper level ridge starting
to build in. Despite this westerly flow holds through at least
late morning. As a result lake effect showers will attempt to
form east of Lake Ontario, but model soundings begin to unzip as
drier air moves in. Otherwise majority of the area will be
precip free Friday through the overnight period. Southwesterly
flow and warm air advection settles in by late afternoon with
temperatures warming into the low to mid 30s. Similar pattern
continues overnight with temperatures in the upper teens to mid
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Ridge slides east Saturday morning with a broad upper level trough
engulfing most of the country. As this trough moves in, southwest
flow continues on the back side of the exiting ridge. This will
allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 30s once again. a
surface cold front associated with low pressure over northern Quebec
approaches from the west. A mix of rain and snow showers is expected
to move into the area, especially during the afternoon before
transitioning back to all snow showers Saturday night as winds
switch back to the northwest.

Broad upper level trough continues to dive further into the country
as the weekend progresses as well as into the early week. This will
allow much cooler Arctic air to spread into the region with 850
mb temperatures ranging from -22 to -25 degrees C. Monday could
see high temperatures in the teens, while Tuesday highs may
only get into the single digits. Overnight lows Monday and
Tuesday are forecasted to be below zero. This surge of cold air
will help kick off more lake effect snow showers over central
NY, made sure to blend Canadian NH for pops.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to cause IFR to MVFR restrictions
for terminals in Central NY through today. Period of LIFR will
be possible in heavier snow showers/lake effect bands at SYR
later this afternoon and evening as the lake effect band lifts
back north.

Winds will remain gusty today at 20 to 25 knots out of the WNW.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...Clipper system with snow
showers and restrictions for most of the area Thursday, then
possible lake effect showers Thursday night KSYR-KRME.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...A wintry mix may bring some restrictions.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ017-018-
     036-037.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ025-044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...DK/ES
AVIATION...MPK