312
FXUS61 KBGM 030659
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
259 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow generally dry and pleasant weather to
persist through at least tomorrow morning. A cold front is
expected to move through tomorrow afternoon and evening, with a
batch of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. After another
showery frontal system early next weekend, cooler dry weather
will follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM Update...

High pressure continues through today. The flow becomes defined
as southwesterly as a trough to the west deepens, allowing for
temperatures to rise into the mid 70s to low 80s for the
majority of areas. Although conditions are expected to remain
dry and warm, high pressure erodes through the day as an
incoming surface cold front approaches from the west, which will
move through during the Short Term period and discussed further
there.

Additionally, we decided to lower afternoon dewpoints both for
today and Thursday as the NBM has trouble catching onto lowering
dewpoints as drier air mixes down during afternoon peak
heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Update...

The trough to the west begins to become positively tilted, and
the associated large upper level low becomes stacked over the
Northern Great Lakes Thursday into Friday with a front moving
into the Northeast. With trends in the models of the upper level
low becoming stacked faster and retrograding farther west, the
front has trended weaker with less forcing for precipitation.
Precipitable water has also trended down with the weaker
advection northward ahead of the front Thursday into Thursday
night with values down to 1.25 from about 1.5 inches of water.

Despite plenty of shear, with 0-6 km shear up around 40 knots,
the timing of the frontal passage is looking more likely to be
later in the day, with surface temperatures cooling and not as
much surface based CAPE. The Finger Lakes and west of I-81 would
have the best shot at any severe storms with around 400 to 600
J/kg of surface based cape. Pockets of higher MUCAPE of up to
1500 J/kg in NE PA may allow for some strong to severe storms
as well. Shear vectors are also less aligned then
they had been so it will be harder to get training storms or
backbuilding overnight. With lower rainfall rates from the
lack of widespread deep convection and the dry soils/low rivers,
flash flooding is looking unlikely and extremely isolated at
most.

Friday is looking breezy for this time of the year with 850 mb
winds around 30 knots and steep low level lapse rates under the
cold air advection. Surface winds may get up to 10 to 15 mph
with gusts to near 30 in the afternoon if it is sunny and can
get deep enough mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 AM Update...

Another shot of cooler air moves in Saturday
bringing another round of showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder from a secondary cold front. Timing of this secondary
cold front is uncertain and may happen before Sunrise Saturday
or later in the day. A much cooler and drier air mass moves in
for early next week that will be similar to last weekend. Some
lake effect rain is possible with the 850 mb temperatures
falling back below 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at
least through 06Z Thursday). The one exception is expected to be
at KELM early this morning as fog is expected to develop there.
While the setup isn`t as ideal for fog formation as last night
there, at least IFR visbys still look likely, especially between
09Z and 12Z. Once any fog dissipates after 13Z or so, VFR
conditions are expected to return there.

Outlook...

Thursday morning...Mainly VFR.

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Restrictions
possible with showers and thunderstorms moving into the region.

Friday...Lingering showers possible, with associated occasional
restrictions.

Saturday...Scattered showers may bring occasional restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR, but a few lake effect rain showers and/or
clouds across Central NY may result in occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...AJG/KL
LONG TERM...AJG/KL
AVIATION...BJG