294
FXUS61 KBGM 021720
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
120 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow generally dry and pleasant weather to
persist through at least Thursday morning. A cold front is
expected to move through Thursday afternoon and evening, with a
batch of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. After another
showery frontal system early next weekend, cooler dry weather
will follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

High pressure remains steadfast through tomorrow night with
light winds and afternoon cumulus. There is a small chance at a
few isolated showers this afternoon with day time heating as
forecast soundings show a bit of CAPE developing, mostly under
400 J/kg though. Mid level dry air and subsidence will likely
work against any updraft that tries to develop so thunder is
unlikely. Given all the things working against precipitation and
how isolated showers will be this afternoon, decided to keep
chances of precipitation out of the grids. Skies will clear
tonight with the loss of heating with widespread fog forming
once again. Tomorrow will be similar to today though stronger
low level capping will limit the amount of clouds that can
develop in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A large upper level low becomes stacked over the Northern Great
Lakes Thursday into Friday with a front moving into the
Northeast. With trends in the models of the upper level low
becoming stacked faster and retrograding farther west, the front
has trended weaker with less forcing for precipitation.
Precipitable water has also trended down with the weaker
advection northward ahead of the front Thursday into Thursday
night with values down to 1.25 from about 1.5 inches of water.

Despite plenty of shear, with 0-6 km shear up around 40 knots,
the timing of the fropa is looking more likely to be later in
the day, with surface temperatures cooling and not as much
surface based CAPE. The Finger Lakes and west of I-81 would have
the best shot at any severe storms with around 400 to 600 J/kg
of surface based cape. Shear vectors are also less aligned then
they had been so it will be harder to get training storms or
backbuilding overnight. With lower rainfall rates from the lack
of widespread deep convection and the dry soils/low rivers,
flash flooding is looking unlikely and extremely isolated at
most.

Friday is looking breezy for this time of the year with 850 mb
winds around 30 knots and steep low level lapse rates under the
cold air advection. Surface winds may get up to 10 to 15 mph
with gusts to near 30 in the afternoon if it is sunny and can
get deep enough mixing. Right now with the uncertainty of lake
effect clouds, did not increase winds much.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Another shot of cooler air moves in Saturday bringing another
round of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Timing of
this secondary cold front is uncertain and may happen before
Sunrise Saturday or later in the day. A much cooler and drier
air mass moves in for early next week that will be similar to
last weekend. Some lake effect rain is possible with the 850 mb
temperatures falling back below 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours with
the exception of KELM early Wed morning as fog develops in the
valleys, resulting in IFR- or-worse visby restrictions. Once
fog dissipates after 13Z or so, VFR conditions are expected to
return at KELM. VFR conditions will persist across the board as
high pressure will continue to dominate the Northeast US into
Wed before a slow-moving front pushes in from the west on
Thursday. Winds will remain light and variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning...Mainly VFR.

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Restrictions
possible with showers and thunderstorms moving into the region.

Friday...Lingering showers possible, with associated occasional
restrictions.

Saturday...Scattered showers may bring occasional restrictions.

Sunday...Cool and breezy conditions with brisk northwest flow
and a few afternoon scattered lake effect rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BJG/BJT