006
FXUS61 KBGM 101339
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper system will bring periods of accumulating snow and mixed
precip to the area today. Lake effect snow and much colder
temperatures are expected behind this system heading into Thursday
and Friday. Periods of snow showers and well below average
temperatures continue for the upcoming weekend across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A strong low-pressure clipper system will move through the region
today into tonight, bringing a round of wintry precipitation. A
quick burst of accumulating snow is expected from the morning
through midday, with Northern Oneida County likely seeing the
highest totals. Most areas, however, should pick up at least some
snow before warmer air arrives and allows rain to mix in at lower
elevations during the afternoon. Because this event is highly
dependent on both temperature and elevation, the challenge will be
determining how sharp the snowfall gradient becomes and where it
sets up. This will greatly impact snow totals in the advisory areas.

Steady snow will spread in from the southwest this morning as warm
air advection increases. Temperatures aloft will remain below
freezing initially, so the early precipitation will fall primarily
as snow. As temperatures rise later in the day, the snow will
gradually transition to a wintry mix, or even rain in the valleys,
with the highest probability of this occurring across northeast
Pennsylvania. There is also some potential for freezing rain,
particularly in the Wyoming Valley late this morning into early
afternoon, where slightly above freezing air aloft could lead to
light icing. While some brief glaze is possible in northeast
Pennsylvania, current trends suggest that any icing should remain
limited and short-lived.

Confidence in snow amounts is greatest over Northern Oneida county
where a winter storm warning remains in effect. Advisories are in
effect over east central NY and northeast PA where a few inches of
snow is expected, but confidence is not as high due to variable
temperatures and elevation differences. Snow and valley rain
gradually tapers off late this afternoon. A sharp cold front passes
west to east in the evening bringing in another shot of cold air. As
a result temperatures again fall back below freezing. Wrap around
snow showers and lake effect enhanced snow showers develop over
central NY heading into tonight. With northwest flow a lake effect
band sets up over Onondaga, Madison, and South Oneida.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Lake-effect snow will continue into Thursday as a cold air mass and
persistent northwest flow remain in place. Temperatures at 850 mb
are expected to fall to around -15 C by Thursday afternoon, and
model soundings show deep moisture through the dendritic growth zone
along with strong lift. This combination points to highly efficient
snow production and potentially high snowfall rates. A Winter Storm
Watch for lake-effect snow remains in effect from early Thursday
morning through early Friday morning, as confidence in the exact
placement of the heaviest band and final snow totals is still not
high enough to upgrade to a warning. Across central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania, scattered snow showers, and even brief snow
squalls, are possible Thursday. Soundings also indicate that strong
winds will mix down to the surface, making the day quite gusty with
winds of 30 to 40 mph. This will lead to areas of blowing and
drifting snow. Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue
Thursday night, and lake-effect activity will linger into Friday as
northwest flow persists. A weak disturbance moves in Friday evening,
which should disrupt the lake-effect pattern but may also bring a
slight chance of additional snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The pattern remains active through this period, with temperatures
staying below average. Another clipper system and its accompanying
cold front will move into the region on Saturday, bringing another
push of colder air along with additional snow showers. In the
systems wake, northwest flow will return, allowing lake effect snow
showers to redevelop. Model guidance indicates that 850 mb
temperatures could drop to between -17 C and -20 C, supporting
continued lake effect activity into Monday. There are early
indications that a ridge may begin to build over the region by the
middle of next week, but confidence in this pattern change remains
low.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ceilings are slowly lowering close to MVFR ahead of the incoming low
pressure system. Snow is expected to move in from west to east
starting around 10z. IFR restrictions are expected to quickly follow
at all CNY terminals, lasting through the day as snow changes to a
mix of rain and snow at lower elevations.
AVP should see IFR restrictions during the afternoon hours.
Broad snow exits in the evening with lingering showers remaining. A
mix of IFR and MVFR Ceilings will remain. SYR and RME should see
snow showers a through the end of the TAF period, keeping conditions
IFR.

LLWS of 35-40kts up to FL020 will be present across the area for a
few hours tonight, picking up again around sunrise and through the
morning hours.


Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Restrictions likely in lake
effect snow showers and squalls, especially at SYR and RME.

Friday through Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in
scattered snow showers. Period of steadier accumulating snow
possible Saturday night for KAVP, perhaps into KELM and KBGM as well.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ009.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ017-018-
    036-037-044>046-057-062.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
for NYZ018-036-037.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MJM
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...JTC