052
FXUS61 KBGM 221900
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend, with
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening with
even more on Sunday, as a cold front sweeps through the area.
Some stronger storms may produce damaging winds and torrential
rainfall. Heat and humidity will subside Monday and Tuesday
behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms look to return on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
120 PM update...

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the region with
SPC mesoanalysis showing good amounts of Mixed Layer CAPE above
1500 for much of the area. A surface boundary is dropping south
through CNY with stable air behind the boundary. There will
likely be some additional destabilization north of the boundary
as there is still plenty of time for reheating. With 25 to 35
knots of 0-6 km shear this afternoon, there is a threat for
damaging winds and hail with any of the stronger storms.

Tonight there is a surface low moving through the Great Lakes
region with our area in the warm sector. Stronger boundary layer
winds should limit fog development but some of the deeper river
valleys may still get fog to develop by sunrise. The warm front
may dip a bit south tonight with the I-90 corridor possibly
getting another round of late night and early morning
convection.

Tomorrow will be another hot day but as the surface low moves
east through the NY/CAN border, a cold front will drop through
the region triggering another round of thunderstorms. With the
low to the north, shear will be better tomorrow (30kt to 40kt
0-6 km shear) in the warm sector and the 12Z models were a
little slower with the timing of the front so there would be
more time for destabilization across the Southern Tier and
southward. CNY may still have morning convection that will limit
the amount of sun as well as create cold pools that inhibit
much destabilization. Forecast soundings have similar amounts
of CAPE as we have had the past few days but better turning with
height so all severe threats are possible tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

A fairly potent mid level disturbance will move southeast into the
area Monday as a cold front continues to push well east of our
region. This will bring a welcome relief from the excessive heat.
However, enough lift and moisture looks present for additional
scattered showers focused with peak heating in the afternoon.
Clouds look to be fairly persistent as well keeping highs just
under 80 for most of the region. Model soundings also show a
fair amount of wind being transported to the surface as well
with gusts of 20 mph possible.

High pressure is then expected to build back into the region by
Tuesday. Potentially chilly start with clearing by Tuesday morning
but highs should rebound into the 80`s given plenty of sun. A
muggier night Tuesday night as should already switch to a warm and
moist southwesterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The next cold front continues to trend faster passing through the
region later Wednesday into early Thursday. Modeled boundary
layer temperatures indicate highs in some areas could hit 90
again. However, some uncertainity is present given clouds and
the likely development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
front. Heat index values in portions of central New York could
once again get close to 95.

Any strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and night will depend on the timing of the front. Currently, 30-40
knots of 0-6KM shear along with 1,000-1,500 J/KG CAPE is modeled.
These values would be enough to allow some thunderstorms to produce
gusty winds. This front looks fairly potent bringing in a refreshing
shot of cooler air Thursday and Friday with highs back down into the
70`s and 80`s. Yet another cold front Saturday with slightly warmer
temperatures ahead of it.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are developing once again this
afternoon. SYR and RME had storms this morning so it will take
time to destabilize the air mass so thunder was omitted as
confidence is low into at least the early evening. Similar to
this morning, there could be a round of late night into early
morning convection at SYR and RME again.

Storms have already developed in PA with AVP likely seeing
storms soon and will persist into the evening. BGM and ELM will
also see storms develop by 20Z and persist into early evening as
well but less coverage than AVP. ITH will be on the north end of
the best instability so confidence in thunder at the airport
was lower so left showers for now.

Some fog may develop at ELM and that is dependent on whether or
not there is rain this afternoon at and around the terminal.

Tomorrow will be another day with showers and thunderstorms
developing. These storms look to be on the stronger side with
strong wind gusts and hail possible starting in the late morning
into early afternoon. Storms will likely be after 18Z so left
thunder out of the TAFs for now at all terminals for tomorrow.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning...Widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sunday with associated restrictions, mainly to
visibility. Lingering restrictions possible in showers early
Monday.

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...VFR conditions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ022-023-025.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ024-055-056-062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG