592
FXUS63 KBIS 070554
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1254 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures in western and north central North
  Dakota tonight.

- Dry with below average temperatures continue for the first
  half of the week, with highs mostly in the 50s. A slight warm-
  up with highs in the 60s and 70s is then anticipated to close
  out the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Temperatures continue to fall below freezing in the west and
north central. The latest surface observations have been blended
into the forecast and the latest NBM has been loaded in.

UPDATE
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Temperatures have dropped into the 30s over far northwest into
parts of north central North Dakota. This is in line with going
forecast with freezing temperatures expected later tonight. No
changes needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Going forecast remains in good shape as expect ongoing clouds to
diminish over northern/western areas as the evening continues.
Only changes needed at this time was to adjust cloud cover a
bit.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Near zonal to northwesterly flow is found over the northern
Plains today. With high pressure moving across the region,
clear and dry weather is anticipated today. With a moderate
pressure gradient draped across northwestern North Dakota,
moderately west winds with speeds up to 20 MPH and gusts up to
30 MPH are expected in our northern counties today. Near to
slightly below seasonable temperatures, broadly in the 50s to
lower 60s, is anticipated this afternoon. With clear skies and
relatively weak winds tonight, another round of freezing
temperatures is anticipated over the northern and portions of
southwestern North Dakota through Tuesday morning, dropping as
low as 28. Lows in south central North Dakota are expected to
remain in the mid to upper 30s during this period. Thus, a
Freeze Warning has been issued for western and north central
North Dakota from midnight through 10 AM CDT tonight.

A transient upper level ridge passing through the northern
Plains late Tuesday and Wednesday will promote a slight warmup
for the later half of the week, with highs broadly forecast in
the 60s and 70s Wednesday through Sunday. Mainly dry conditions
are also anticipated through late Friday. A transition to
southwesterly flow over the northern Plains is then anticipated
this weekend the the transient upper level ridge moves into the
Great Lakes Region. With an upper level low ejecting a number of
shortwaves into the region, the ensemble advertises low to
medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain this weekend. A large
majority of ensemble members have settled on this scenario,
though a minority cluster (15 percent of members) still exists
that keeps western and central North Dakota fairly dry as a
strong Atlantic low greatly slows down the eastward displacement
of the upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR CIGs and VIS through the period. Light and variable winds
overnight, then winds will gust around 20kts from the south this
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>034-040>044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Smith