811
FXUS63 KBIS 300629
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
129 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog could develop in southwest, far south central, far
  northwest, and north central North Dakota overnight into
  Friday morning.

- Near normal temperatures through Friday, becoming above normal
  this weekend into early next week.

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light rain or drizzle
  Friday night through Saturday, followed by medium to high
  chances (50 to 80 percent) for rain Sunday night through
  Monday night, possibly lasting into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dense fog is developing in far northwest and far southwest
North Dakota. Surface observations and webcams do not yet
indicate widespread dense fog, but will need to monitor.
Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape. Current
conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 915 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Variable cloudiness across western and central ND this evening.
Any precipitation has moved out of the area or ended.
Temperatures were mainly in the 30s to lower 40s. No updates
needed at this time.

Cams have backed off/slowed down with the extent of stratus/fog
in the southwest and far south central late tonight, but will
keep a mention of fog in the forecast for now.

UPDATE
Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Isolated shower activity continues to track east, exiting the
James River Valley. Very light reflectivities also continue
along the International Border and likely anything reaching the
ground would be a sprinkle. Some low VFR cloudiness associated
with the activity over the JRV, and some lower clouds in the far
northwest. Otherwise, expect mainly mid and high clouds under
partly cloudy skies this evening. No changes to the going
forecast at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Currently, strong to moderate zonal flow aloft over the
Northern Plains with broad ridging from the Central Plains back
northwest across the Rockies. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure extends from southern Saskatchewan southeast into
western Minnesota. A few light showers continue across the
southern James River Valley into southeastern areas of the
state, associated with an area of low/mid level frontogensis.

Models continue to suggest fog redeveloping into parts of
southwest and south central ND later tonight, but have trended
south with the aerial placement last few runs. Will maintain in
the forecast for now.

Broad ridging aloft amplifies and develops east for the
upcoming weekend, trending temperatures warmer with highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s Sat and Sun. At the same time, boundary
layer moisture increases thanks to a southerly mid level flow
transporting 50+ degree Td values. With embedded disturbances
moving through the flow aloft, sky cover will be robust along
with a chances for light showers/drizzle both days.

Deep upper level low pressure off the West Coast within long
wave troughing aloft will swing inland Sunday, then crosses the
Rockies and moves into the Great Plains Sunday night into
Monday. Ensembles and NBM continue to favor medium to high
chances for rain west Sunday night and area wide for Monday/Mon
night, with precipitation chances slowly decreasing Tuesday
from west to east as the main forcing departs to our east. Might
see chances linger longer on Tuesday depending the degree of
wrap around that occurs. QPF amounts are forecast to range from
around a quarter inch, with some area up to half an inch
possible. Precip type will be all liquid with this event.

Thereafter, ensembles suggest lots of uncertainty after Tuesday,
with near normal temperatures expected for now in the 40s and
50s and lows cooling to subfreezing by the middle of next week.
Precip chances will be heavily dependent on any upper level
feature moving through the region, and right now the forecast is
dry both Wed and Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dense fog is possible across parts of western and central North
Dakota tonight through Friday morning, but is unlikely to
impact any TAF sites. There is a low chance that MVFR/IFR
ceilings could move over KDIK early Friday morning. VFR
conditions are generally otherwise expected through Friday
afternoon, although some pockets of MVFR ceilings cannot be
ruled out. MVFR ceilings are then forecast to become more common
late Friday evening through Friday night. Expect easterly winds
through the forecast period, with speeds around 5-10 kts
through Friday morning increasing to 10-15 kts Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Hollan