136
FXUS63 KBIS 041726
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions Wednesday mainly across southeast North
  Dakota, including the James River Valley.

- High temperatures near to above normal with mostly dry
  conditions are favored through the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 808 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Visibility has improved across the area and will continue to
improve over the next couple hours, therefore canceled the Dense
Fog Advisory early. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 521 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Fog continues over portions of south central and north central
North Dakota. Some of the low stratus has cleared out of the
Bismarck Mandan area but patchy fog may linger through sunset.
No major updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low stratus and fog will continue across portions of central
North Dakota this morning expanding southward. Fog is forecast
to clear out later this morning, shortly after sunrise. Dense
fog has been observed and will cause visibility reductions down
to a quarter of a mile across portions of central North Dakota.

The upper low continues to progress across Minnesota and will
slowly progress into the Great Lakes region later this week.
Short range models have low stratus moving out of the forecast
area this afternoon. Surface high pressure over western North
Dakota will continue to push low clouds eastward. A cooler
airmass has settled into the region bringing forth near normal
to slightly above normal temperatures. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s while low
temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s. The surface low over
southern Minnesota and surface high over western North Dakota
will lead to breezy conditions in the James River Valley to the
Red River Valley. Winds will die down as surface high pressure
moves east later this evening.


Upper level ridging will build back over the Northern Plains by
the middle to end of this week as troughing moves east. This
will bring forth dry and warm conditions through the remainder
of the week. High temperatures this week are forecast to sit in
the 50s across the state with light winds. Ridging will move
eastward this weekend as the ENS has an upper level low digging
across the Canadian Prairies. The aforementioned upper level low
will bring forth breezy to windy conditions across the western
half of the state. However, the GEFs has backed off of this
scenario and drops the upper low over South Dakota and Nebraska
Saturday, which has decreased wind speeds on the NBM. No
precipitation is forecast from this upper low.

Ridging will likely build back over western CONUS to start the
week, however northwesterly flow will bring multiple system
through Canada likely to far north for precipitation. Ridging
will likely follow by the middle of next week leading to dry and
warm conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected this afternoon and
evening before fog potentially develops again tonight. The
highest confidence for fog development is in western North
Dakota, with lower confidence in central parts of the state. Fog
could be dense at times especially in the west, and especially
in areas where winds become light and variable with persistently
clear skies.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Telken