055
FXUS63 KBIS 150517
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong westerly winds will slowly diminish overnight.

- Near normal temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s through
  the week.

- Mainly dry today, low chances for showers Wednesday. Better
  chances for showers and thunderstorms may approach the area
  late in the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Strong gusty winds will continue to slowly subside through the
overnight hours. The High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory has been
allowed to expire over western ND. Will hold on to the wind
advisory over central ND, it expires at 4 AM and may be able to
cancel early. Otherwise only some minor adjustments to sky cover
and pops in the meager wrap around moisture.


UPDATE
Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Winds continue across the west and central, but gusts continue
to push east and decrease across the west. Showers have
diminished as day time heating has subsided. Low clouds
continue to push in from the north. No major updates needed at
this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

An upper level low continues pass across the International
Border bringing forth wind gusts around 50-60 mph out west.
Stronger winds will continue to push farther east, but decrease
a bit after sunset when the inversion sets up. There will still
be cold air advection on the back side of the upper low which
will lead to high winds at the surface overnight, but mixing
could limit the upper threshold of the strong winds pushing
eastward. There will be a few embedded showers with this system
that could produce brief showers this evening into tonight. No
major updates are needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Latest surface analysis shows the front along the western
portion of the state. The surface low is just to the north of
the state and it has started to lift out into Canada. It will
continue to move out through the afternoon. Linger rain showers
will continue as it gets wrap around the low, especially along
the international border. The area will clear out of the rain
showers and low cloud cover as the front passes by. Winds will
be predominately out of the west by the afternoon, thanks to the
frontal passage, and it will bring very strong gusts across
much of the state. 12Z HREF has large swath of 60-80%
probabilities of 50 mph or higher behind the front, starting
from the west and moving east throughout the day. There is a
narrow swath of 20-50% probabilities of 55 mph, but it mainly
confined to areas west of Highway 82. As result, a High Warning
is in effect for the western portion of the state and a Wind
Advisory for everywhere else through the tonight. Winds will
slacken below warning and advisory by the late night.

On top of the strong gusty winds, dry air has started to
filter into the southwestern portion of the state. It is
evident on the water vapor imagery and the latest 12Z model
runs continue to show this dry slot lasting through the
afternoon. Strong winds and dry air will bring near critical
fire weather conditions late this afternoon for the far
southwestern counties.

Going forward with the rest of week, a ridge will build back
over the region, leading a calmer day tomorrow. Winds will still
be elevated through the day, but lower than today. Another
weather feature will bring another round of rain shower chances
on Wednesday. Ensemble models show the pattern will be unsettled
for the last half of the week and into the weekend. Another low
pressure center is poised to develop and move across the western
states. There is uncertainty on the progression of this feature
at the present moment. For now, chances for rain showers will
return through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Strong westerly winds will continue to dissipated through the
overnight hours and into early Wednesday morning. Areas of MVFR
ceilings will also remain through around midday Wednesday before
lifting to VFR and exiting the area to the east. VFR conditions
are then expected through the remainder of the TAF period.
Northwest winds will diminish this afternoon, then shift
easterly after 00Z Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for NDZ004-005-
012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...KJS
AVIATION...TWH