682
FXUS63 KBIS 161132
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
632 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms southwest this
  afternoon into early this evening. A strong to marginally
  severe storm can not be ruled out, but widespread severe
  storms are not anticipated.

- Low to medium chances (20-50%) for showers and isolated
  thunderstorms tonight. Severe storms are not expected.

- Near daily low to medium chances (20-50%) for hit and miss
  showers and thunderstorms through the work week.

- Seasonable temperatures are expected today and through the
  upcoming work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Mostly clear skies across western and central ND early this
Sunday morning. There were some warm advection clouds developing
in the northwest. Also a couple patches of fog have developed,
one around Rugby and another along the Missouri River near
Linton. Added some patchy fog for these areas and tweaked sky
cover a little. Otherwise no changes at this time to the going
forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A northwest upper level flow will remain over the forecast area
today and through the upcoming work week. Currently, a broad
upper lever ridge was located over the western U.S. Numerous
shortwaves were propagating through the ridge, with a couple
tracking through the Northern Rockies. Another shortwave was
tracking through the western Canadian Provinces, and finally, a
strong wave was dropping southeast through northern Canada
around a developing Hudson Bay Low.

The initial shortwave energy may spark isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over western ND this afternoon. The southwest will
become moderately unstable with SB Capes around 1000-1500 J/kg.
Bulk shear, initially modest does increase late this afternoon
into this evening with 30 to 40kts of shear over the area. A
couple of forecast soundings in the far southwest indicate a
marginally severe to severe atmosphere may be possible. The main
issue may be timing of shortwave energy lining up with peak
instability. Both are present, but if they don`t line up well,
strong convection may not occur. A look at the latest CAMs shows
most do develop some convection over/near the southwest late
this afternoon into early this evening. A few do show stronger
updrafts, while others are pretty weak. The main hazard would be
small hail. Will continue to monitor, but at this time will not
mention severe storms. Better chances for strong to severe
storms remains over western South Dakota.

Later tonight the aforementioned western Canadian wave and it`s
attendant surface low, tracks across the southern Canadian
Prairie Provinces. Its surface warm front, which was lingering
over eastern Montana, and its quickly following cold front
tracks east across the forecast area tonight. So we have the
early convection in the southwest, then later convection
tracking northeast to southwest across the forecast area. By the
time the northern convection makes it into the state,
instability will be minimal and strong to severe storms are not
anticipated. There may not be that much in the way of convection
at all, with scattered showers and maybe some isolated
thunderstorms.

Finally, the northern Canadian shortwave diving south, catches
up with the leading cyclone over southeast North Dakota by
Monday afternoon. Convection tracking through the area late
tonight may linger over the south central and into eastern ND
on Monday morning. By the time the northern front catches up and
helps to invigorate convection over eastern ND, it is forecast
to be out of our neck of the woods.

Thus after all this, some stronger convection can not be ruled
out later this afternoon into early this evening over the
southwest. Later this evening and overnight, additional
isolated to scattered showers track southeast across the
forecast area, and may linger into Monday morning in the south
central and James River Valley. If convection does re-invigorate
Monday, it looks like the potential for severe storms will be
southeast of the forecast area.

We cool down on Tuesday behind the Canadian cold front with
highs mainly in the 70s. We then see a warm-up with highs
mainly in the 80s by Thursday, then mid 70s to mid 80s into the
weekend. With the northwest upper flow remaining over the area,
daily hit and miss thunderstorms chances will remain in the
forecast but with low predictability in timing and placement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions to begin the 12Z forecast period and VFR
conditions expected for the most part at all sites through the
TAF period. A couple exceptions would be low probability or
patchy fog through around 14 UTC. Only a couple of areas of fog
noted at this time but a brief reduction due to shallow fog
can`t be ruled out. Scattered thunderstorms are possible over
southwest ND this afternoon into early evening. Added a PROB30
for rain showers at KDIK 21-01Z with better probability for
thunder south of KDIK. Later tonight isolated to scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorms may track southeast across
the forecast area. For now just included a VCSH at KXWA 03-09Z.
Latest guidance suggests the cold front moving through is
trending slower so precip chances (as little as they may be) may
not even make it to KBIS and KJMS until after 12Z Monday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH