672
FXUS63 KBIS 251812
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1212 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will fall across most of western and central North Dakota
  through this afternoon. The highest storm total snow amounts
  are forecast to be along a line from Crosby to Garrison to
  Jamestown, where 4 to 9 inches will be possible.

- Gusty northerly winds are forecast through this afternoon.
  Falling snow combined with these winds will cause areas of
  blowing snow and reduced visibility. The strongest winds,
  with gusts up to 45 mph, are expected across southwestern
  North Dakota this morning.

- There is a chance for light accumulating snowfall Friday and
  Friday night across parts of the Northern Plains, which may
  impact travel.

- Well below normal temperatures are favored for the weekend
  after Thanksgiving and into early next week. Wind chill
  temperatures as low as 30 below zero will be possible Sunday
  night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Snow continues to tapper off from west to east. Currently the
line is north/south at the western edge of Morton County. The
Winter Weather Advisory in the north central was extended to 6
PM as light snow and low visibilities continue there.

UPDATE
Issued at 1020 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

We upgraded Dickey and La Moure counties to a Winter Storm
Warning. We received a report in La Moure county of 6.7 inches
and there is another heavy band of snow moving in from South
Dakota. The QPF and snow amount forecast was adjusted to reflect
this trend as well.

UPDATE
Issued at 935 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Visibilities have been dropping in areas of falling snow, likely
due to the sun shining through the snow flakes. The snow has
ended in the west and will trend eastward. The heaviest snow is
falling along and east of Highway 83 in the south central and
James River Valley. Snow totals we have received so far are
mainly around 4.5 to 5.5. The James River Valley started snowing
later, and current reports there are around 3 inches. We will
monitor the southeast for an upgrade to a Warning or not.

UPDATE
Issued at 623 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Moderate to sometimes heavier snow continues across southern ND
along the sfc trough axis and in conjunction with the TROWAL
aloft. Just over 2 inches of snowfall at the Bismarck airport
as of 0600 local time. Snow is sticky in nature, so our
assumptions that blowing snow will be worse at times of falling
snow is accurate.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Currently, strong S/WV trough moving east-southeast into the
region early this morning, now over the western Dakotas and
starting to show signs of cutting off. Associated sfc trough
extends from north central South Dakota west-northwest into
southwestern ND. Widespread light to moderate snow results
across west and central North Dakota where the system`s TROWAL
wraps west-northwestward into the wave, with strong Div Q
forcing across much of my area. Strong cold frontal boundary
also continues to advance southward early this morning, and will
changeover any lingering rain over my southeast to all snow
over the next few hours. Lastly, northerly winds increasing in
the wake of the sfc trough, and as expected strongest southwest
where gusts to 45 mph have been observed.

Closed mid level low will move across central into eastern South
Dakota through this morning, then into southern Minnesota this
afternoon. Main upper level forcing resides over our local area
mainly for this morning, then moves into Minnesota this
afternoon. Still, TROWAL induced wrap around snow is forecast to
continue over my east into the afternoon, ending over the James
Vally by around sunset.

There remains potential we may receive greater than 6 inches of
snow some locations east-southeast of Bismarck, though the lack
of really strong forcing this afternoon and the progressive
nature of the main forcing this morning leads me to maintain
the winter weather advisory as is with this product issuance.
With sunrise, we should start getting a better picture as
reports start coming in, and there is still time for possible
upgrades to a warning over the next several hours. Strongest
winds will also occur this morning over the southwest, where up
to 45-50 mph gusts will continue for several more hours. Will be
breezy elsewhere through the day, with areas of blowing snow
especially when and where snow is falling with the wind.

Northwest flow aloft will be in place for the remainder of the
week, maintaining below normal temperatures with highs in the
20s and lows in the single digits and teens. Next chance of
precipitation arrives late Thursday night through Friday, with
split flow aloft and embedded S/WV`s moving southeast across
the Northern Plains. One of these waves induces surface low
pressure developing in the lee of the Central Rockies, with an
isentropic upglide forcing regime depicted somewhere over our
region, currently favored by the NBM to impact much of western
and central ND with near advisory level snowfall (at least 3
inches). GEFS ensembles keep most precip south, while the EC
ensemble is closer to the NBM.

For this coming weekend, large upper low settles over Hudson
Bay to our north-northeast, and will push a surge of Arctic air
south into the north central CONUS. Coldest period is currently
expected to be Sunday and Monday, when high temperatures are
only forecast in the teens, along with subzero lows Sat night,
Sun night, and Mon night. Coldest night right now expected to be
Sunday night/Mon morning, when wind chill temperatures will
approach 30 below some areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025


MVFR west to LIFR east and south with the snow. Heavy snow will
continue in the southeast for the next few hours. The snow
across the state will end west to east through today. Winds will
stay gusting around 30 kts from the northwest through this
evening, then calming to 10kts overnight. BLSN is possible this
afternoon and evening and could create IFR VIS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
for NDZ001>003-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>047-050.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ004-
005.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NDZ048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Smith