880
FXUS63 KBIS 020938
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
438 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of wildfire smoke return today, possibly lingering into
  Wednesday.

- Below average temperatures through the week, possibly warming
  to start next week.

- Windy on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Current surface analysis places low over Ontario with cold front
dropping through North Dakota into northwest South Dakota.
Upper level analysis places low over the Midwest into the
eastern Great Lakes, while broad high noted over the Great Basin
into the Central Rockies. Over our area, some showers/storms
continue ahead of the front over northern Minnesota, but quiet
weather now prevails over our area.

For today into tonight, front will continue its southern/eastern
progression, with some areas of wildfire smoke pulling into the
region behind it. In the meantime, a notable upper trough drops
through central Canada before closing off over western Ontario.
A variety of weak waves wrapping around this system combined
with the aforementioned cold front may result in some showers
and possibly a few rumbles of thunder today into this evening.
This system will also usher down notably cooler air, with high
temperatures possibly not even reaching 70 degrees around the
Turtle Mountains.

On Wednesday, cooler airmass settles in, with highs of around 15
to 20 degrees below average expected over the area. Warmer air
tries to make its way in Wednesday night, but a notable cold
front then drops in on Thursday. This will result in a windy
day, with northwesterly winds possibly reaching advisory
criteria. Breezy conditions may remain through the overnight
keeping frost away, but calmer conditions are expected by Friday
night, which may bring frost concerns to the area. Warmer
airmass then tries to push its way in to start the following
week, bringing a gradual return to milder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

An area of MVFR ceilings is expected to move into north central
North Dakota this morning, affecting the KMOT terminal. This
should move off around mid-day. Later this afternoon into this
evening, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms may
bring occasional MVFR visibility. Otherwise, the main concern is
wildfire smoke moving into the area through the day from
northwest to southeast. This may bring areas of MVFR visibility,
with a few periods of IFR visibility.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS