483
FXUS63 KBIS 010649
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
149 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog, mist, and patchy drizzle across much of North
  Dakota late tonight into Sunday morning.

- High chances for rain across most of the state Sunday night
  through Monday night. Rainfall could exceed 1 inch (60 to 90
  percent chance) along and southeast of a line from Linton to
  Jamestown.

- Near to above average temperatures and drier weather favored
  mid to late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Dense fog has spread at least one tier of counties to the
northwest of the last iteration of the Dense Fog Advisory, and
there are also a few webcams showing dense fog as far northwest
as eastern Williams County. Given observed and modeled trends,
the Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded to cover all of
western and central North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Expanded the Dense Fog Advisory to include portions of north
central ND.

UPDATE Issued at 950 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For the late evening update we expanded the Dense Fog Advisory
to include most of southwest and south central ND. Although not
a lot of OBS at a quarter mile, enough webcams showing low vsbys
to justify expanding the Advisory. Cams continue to show fog
lifting north. Could see a further expansion later tonight
northward. Cams also show fog dissipating south and as of yet,
haven`t seen much of that. In addition, for precipitation just
went with patchy drizzle. Updated text products will be sent
shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Ended up issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for the James River
Valley. Quite a few webcams showing low vsbys and a quarter to
half mile at Jamestown and Carrington. Cams are suggesting an
improvement in vsby from south to north later tonight. Opted to
go ahead and issue the advisory and cancel if/when needed. No
other changes at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 505 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Widespread stratus will remain across western and central ND
tonight. Only adjustments early this evening were to increase
sky cover to cloudy, all areas through the day Sunday. There are
still some lower Vsbys in the far southwest so will keep the
advisory going. It seems more likely than not that vsbys here
will worsen tonight. A SPS continues in the James River Valley
for fog. Will continue to monitor for a continuation or possible
Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Current surface analysis places low stretching from eastern
Wyoming into eastern Colorado, with high over the eastern Great
Lakes. Upper level analysis places low off the west coast, with
tilted ridge stretching from the Ohio River Valley into the
Upper Midwest. Over our area, low level moisture continues to
lift in ahead and around the aforementioned surface low,
resulting in low clouds along with some fog over our area. Some
of the fog continues to be dense over far southwest North Dakota
where a Dense Fog Advisory remains in places.

For tonight, low clouds will remain in place along with areas of
fog. With not much relief in visibility expected over the far
southwest, have decided to extend the Dense Fog Advisory through
the overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Occasional
periods of drizzle and/or light rain will be possible as a
variety of weak waves lift through the upper flow ahead of the
aforementioned Pacific system which will move well onshore
overnight. Temperatures will remain quite mild overnight for
this time of year.

On Sunday, clouds will remain over the area given the
aforementioned moisture in place, with temperatures continuing
to be rather mild. A few waves passing through will continue to
bring occasional precipitation chances through the day, but this
will be on a notable increase from southwest to northeast
overnight. Aforementioned Pacific system will push over the
Rockies overnight, with a surface low deepening over Colorado
before ejecting into the central plains.

As we get into Monday, high precipitation chances will continue
over the area as surface low lifts from the central plains into
the upper Midwest. Widespread rains over the area are expected,
with the greatest rainfall expected over southeastern portions
of the area. Latest NBM guidance now indicates a 60 to 90
percent of seeing 1 inch of rain or greater along and southeast
of a line from Linton to Jamestown, with a 50 to 70 percent
chance of seeing 2 inches or more over the southern James River
Valley which includes Edgeley, LaMoure, Ellendale, and Oakes. In
addition, with the surface low shifting northeast, winds will be
on the increase over the area, especially along the South Dakota
border where latest guidance indicates north-northwesterly winds
with gusts to 45 mph possible.

Thereafter some questions remain with the forecast as ensemble guidance
has been leaning towards ridging, but some deterministic
guidance continues to lean towards a bit more active pattern
with some modest short wave troughs moving through. NBM
temperatures spreads continue to indicate near to above average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

LIFR to IFR ceilings will prevail over most of western and
central North Dakota through Sunday morning. Fog, mist, and
drizzle will also reduce visibility at most terminals, with
dense fog possible at times. Visibility should improve Sunday
afternoon, with ceilings lifting to IFR or low MVFR levels. Rain
will begin spreading into southwest North Dakota late Sunday
evening. Winds will generally be southeast to south around 5-10
kts, increasing to near 15 kts at KJMS Sunday afternoon, and
turning to the east and northeast in western North Dakota
Sunday evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-031>033-040-041-043-
044-055>058.
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ early this
morning for NDZ025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-059>062.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Hollan