342
FXUS63 KBIS 190407
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1007 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- low to medium chances (20 to 60 percent) for rain tonight into
  Wednesday in southwest central and northeast North Dakota.

- Above normal high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s this
  week, with the occasional highs in the upper 30s in the Turtle
  Mountains.

- Below normal temperatures are favored for the last week of
  November.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Latest radar shows the leading edge of precip pushing into
southwest and central ND quicker than anticipated. Therefore we
raised pops through the remainder of the evening here. Its only
light precip but there was some precip at the Dickinson Airport
in the past hours. Better chances will still push in after
midnight. Over northwest and north central ND, actually quite a
bit of clear skies this evening, so adjusted sky cover down
here. However low clouds are beginning to move into the far
northwest. Low clouds and possible fog expected to increase her
through the night. Updated text products will be transmitted
shortly.


UPDATE
Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

No significant updates needed other than some small tweaks to
sky cover. Will take a look at rain chances late tonight into
Wednesday with the evening update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Quasi-zonal flow continues across the state. Showers continue to
progress into the southern James River Valley producing light
rain. Shower will push eastward and diminish this evening. High
temperatures are forecast to warm into the 40s to lower 50s this
afternoon. Patchy fog could form across much of the state
tonight, but there is uncertainty on how widespread and
impactful fog will be. Overnight low temperatures are forecast
to drop down into the 30s. A short wave will push across the
state tonight, west to east, through early tomorrow. This will
bring rain to the area as warmer air moves in with a warm front
tonight. Precipitation accumulations are forecast to be light
from a trace to around 0.10 of an inch. High temperatures
tomorrow are forecast to warm into the 40s to lower 50s.

An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify and progress across
the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Thursday into
Friday. This will lead to temperatures lingering in the 40s to
50s through the weekend. Surface high pressure is forecast to
move into the western North Dakota Thursday clearing much of the
cloudy skies. Surface high pressure will lead to low
temperatures into the 20s Friday morning. Northwesterly flow
will dominate the upper level pattern this weekend. However,
there are no waves really forecast to move through the region
leading to dry conditions. Forecast models are picking up on a
potential system next week bringing in cold Arctic air leading
to below normal temperatures. As for precipitation there is a
lot of uncertainty in the ensembles on where a clipper system
may move through.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Low stratus, areas of fog and light rain will be on the increase
overnight.

MVFR to IFR stratus continues to push into southern ND and has
reached KBIS and is forecast to reach KJMS around 06 UTC. Mid
clouds and scattered showers is pushing northeast through
southwest ND and into central ND. Currently only a few high
clouds in the northwest and north central, but low clouds are
currently situated over far northwest ND and NE Montana. Low
stratus and possible fog will increase over northwest and
eventually north central ND through the night. Expect MVFR-IFR
ceilings in the stratus over southern ND. IFR-LIFR ceilings and
fog noted with the stratus in NE Montana into southern
Saskatchewan and this is forecast to spread into northwest and
possibly north central ND tonight. The area of light rain that
will track from southwest into central and eventually NE ND,
may see periods of MVFR-IFR ceilings and visibilities, but
overall may see better cigs/vsbys that the areas of stratus to
the north and south while precipitation is falling, but
widespread MVFR should eventually develop here as well late
tonight into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings will be slow to
clear on Wednesday and may linger through the TAF period over
northern portions of the forecast area, once they develop.
Surface flow will remain light southerly tonight, shifting to
the west over western ND later in the day Wednesday, then
northwest over the entire forecast area by 06Z Thursday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...TWH