484
FXUS63 KBIS 071359
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
859 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with below average temperatures continue for the first
  half of the week, with highs mostly in the 50s. A slight warm-
  up with highs in the 60s and 70s is then anticipated to close
  out the week.

- Chances for rain and warmer temperatures return this weekend
  across the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Main update is to let the Freeze Warning expire on time this
morning. There are still some subfreezing temperatures currently
found in the west and north. Warming temperatures are expected
throughout the morning, with high peaking in the 50s and 60s
today. Given this warming will start shortly, have let the
Freeze Warning expire.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Very little to update this chilly morning. Freeze Warning
continues until 9am CT. The latest surface observations were
blended into the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Currently aloft, northwest flow has begun to move into the
Dakotas as a large ridge is present in the western Continental
United States. At the surface, high pressure is dominating most
of the Northern Plains and Midwest. The main high pressure
center is in far south central Canada, but the influence of high
pressure can be seen as far south as Kansas. Another chilly
night is on going due to the high pressure. A Freeze Warning is
in effect again for most of western and central North Dakota
until this morning.

Today the surface high pressure in southern Canada will slide on
through North Dakota, creating a pressure bubble. Since a high
pressure rotates clock-wise, the backside of the high will
produce south winds. These winds could gust around 20 mph at
times this afternoon. Highs will be slightly warmer, especially
in the west. Expect highs in the 50s and 60s. Wednesday the
ridge axis will slide across the Northern Plains, creating the
warmest day so far with highs generally in the low 70s.
Wednesday however will be breezy as we are getting squeezed
between a low pressure in Wyoming, and the high in Wisconsin.
Winds could gust around 25 or 30 mph, mainly in the south
central and east.

After Wednesday southwest flow will be dominate over the
Northern Plains as a large low pressure system moves on shore in
the Pacific Northwest. With this flow, warmer air will move back
into the region. This will allow temperatures to possibly warm
back near 80. Along with this, chances for rain return to the
state. Allowing the already 18th wettest year in the south
central to possible climb up the ranks. The southwest flow will
continue to be present through the weekend before it possibly
breaks down into a trough early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR CIGs and VIS through the period. Light winds this morning
then winds will gust around 20kts from the south this
evening through the overnight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith