050
FXUS63 KBIS 160507
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1207 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry today through Sunday, although low chances (20-30%)
  for thunderstorms return to the southwest Sunday afternoon.

- Low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and isolated
  thunderstorms Sunday night.

- Near daily low to medium chances (20-60%) chances for rain
  expected through the week.

- Below normal temperatures this weekend, followed by a brief
  warm up on Monday. Cooler Tuesday and Wednesday, then warming
  later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Mostly clear skies across western and central ND for the early
overnight update. No changes needed to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Quiet weather continues. No changes needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Quiet weather continues over the area with some low clouds over
the east gradually dissipating. No changes needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Zonal flow aloft continues across the Northern Plains as the surface
low over northern Minnesota move eastward. Satellite imagery shows
clouds continuing to clear across the west as temperatures warm into
the 70s. There is a chance that some of the low clouds hang on
a little longer in central and eastern North Dakota then what
models have forecast. Tonight, overnight lows are forecast to
drop down around the mid 40s out west as surface high pressure
moves into the region with 50s elsewhere. Sunday, high
temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s and 80s across
the area as surface high pressure will clear skies before a
weak ridge moves across the High Plains. There is some marginal
instability possible across the southwest tomorrow afternoon
which could result in a low chance of strong storms. The CSU ML
program is pegging a low chance for severe weather tomorrow
afternoon. An upper level wave could kick storms off in the
afternoon and evening continuing precipitation into the over
night hours mainly across the southern half of the state.
Overnight low Sunday are forecast to drop down into the 50s.

Monday, temperatures will continue to warm into the 80s as the
ridge out west strengthens. There is another low chance of
strong to severe storms in the southeastern half of the state
extending into the James River Valley Monday afternoon. This
will bring a front to the region which will slightly cool
temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Another wave could move through
the region Tuesday bringing forth low to medium chances of rain
across the state. Low chances for precipitation will continue on
through the week tapering off by the weekend as an upper level
ridge builds over the region which will lead to warmer weather.
This ridge could push temperatures back into the upper 80s to
lower 90s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions to begin the 06Z TAF period and mainly VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period. With high
pressure over the forecast area Sunday morning, light winds and
mostly clear skies are expected. Patchy fog will be a
possibility across the area. Guidance is not indicating much for
fog at this time so confidence is too low to add to any TAF
site. There will be a low chance for thunderstorms in the
southwest this afternoon, then tonight, low chances (20-30%) for
showers and thunderstorms track east across the forecast area.
At this time, may add a PROB30 to western TAF sites, but again,
confidence is too low for anything more at this time. Light
surface flow tonight. During the day Sunday expect winds
generally 12kts or less from the northwest over central and from
the south over western ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...TWH