300
FXUS63 KBIS 172352
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
652 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain showers (30 to 50 percent chance) across
  western and central North Dakota tonight into Saturday
  morning.

- Windy Saturday and especially on Monday.

- Widespread below freezing temperatures Saturday night into
  Sunday morning, and again Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through early next week,
  followed by a warming trend to above normal mid to late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

No significant forecast changes are needed for this update. Latest
ensemble and high-resolution model data were blended in. This did
result in a minor increase to light rain chances from western into
south central North Dakota later tonight into Saturday morning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Currently the upper level low and surface low (stacked low) are
both near Winnipeg in Canada. A trailing cold front is draped
across northern Minnesota through central South Dakota. Upstream
from the low, quasi-zonal flow is setup over the Northern
Plains with a shallow trough over the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface on the backside of the surface low, west winds are
gusting to 35 mph with a slight high pressure bubble and a tight
pressure gradient (PGF). Around sunset winds will relax as the
main push of cold air and the PGF moves east.

Tonight that shallow trough will move over the state, leading
to some diffluence air. This will give us another slight (20%)
chance of rain overnight to about sunrise. A surface cold front
will also move through at this time, adding lift. Saturday, as a
result, will be cooler with highs in the 50s. Winds will be
windy again, this time from the northwest and gusting near
35mph. These winds are again from the PGF and high pressure
bubble behind the cold front. Post frontal passage, temperatures
Saturday night will drop to the upper 20s to lower 30s. A
Freeze Warning will be needed, likely for the last time as
those end October 20th.

Sunday a quick moving ridge moves through, allowing temperatures
to warm back near 60 and winds to be slightly calmer. Then
Sunday night through Monday an Alberta Clipper moves through.
This looks to be another stacked low that produces a 35 percent
chance of rain across most of the state. It will also create
more windy conditions. On the backside of this low pressure
system, cold air will get wrapped in from Canada, bringing the
second night of freezing temperatures this week. Tuesday through the
end of the week will be mostly zonal flow. Temperatures will stay
around the 50s and 60s. Friday the pattern could switch to southwest
flow, allowing temperatures to maybe hit 70 next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A broad area of scattered light rain showers is forecast to move
southeastward across the state later this evening into Saturday
morning. The highest chances for rain are at KDIK, and the lowest
are at KMOT. In southwest North Dakota, the rain may be accompanied
by MVFR ceilings as it moves through late tonight into early
Saturday morning. VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the
forecast period. Gusty westerly winds early this evening will
diminish to around 10 kts through tonight, then shift to the
northwest and strengthen on Saturday with sustained speeds around 15-
20 kts and gusts to 30 kts in the afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Hollan