407
FXUS63 KBIS 291938
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
238 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bit above average temperatures Wednesday, then a dip to a
  bit below average temperatures through the remainder of the
  work week.

- The first opportunity for widespread frost, mainly over
  northern areas, may come Thursday night. A few areas may show
  up Wednesday night.

- Occasional low precipitation chances through the work week,
  but overall a mainly dry pattern is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Current surface analysis places low over Saskatchewan, with
high over the Pacific Northwest. Upper level analysis places low
near the California/Nevada/Arizona border. Westerly flow
remains over our area with a potent short wave pushing off to
the east. Over our area, quiet weather is now in place as most
of the low clouds from earlier have diminished.

For tonight, a quiet night is on tap as surface low pushes off
over Manitoba. This will keep a light westerly wind going
through the night.

On Wednesday, westerly flow remains in place with dry conditions
continuing. A cooler surface high starts to push in later in the
day into the night. Therefore, lows in the mid to upper 30s are
possible mainly over parts of northwestern North Dakota which
could lead to some frost.

On Thursday, a weak wave skirts southwestern North Dakota which
could bring a shower to the area. Otherwise, quiet and cooler
weather continues. Surface high passes over overnight with winds
going very light. This will allow temperatures to drop even
more, with lows possibly dipping into the mid 30s over much of
western and central North Dakota. Therefore, this could be our
first widespread frost of the year.

To end the week into the weekend, upper flow shifts more
west/northwest bringing seasonal temperatures. A few weak waves
move through the flow possibly bringing a few light showers, but
chances are low (about 20 to 30 percent).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Localized MVFR to IFR ceilings over central North Dakota into
the James River Valley will continue to erode over the next few
hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS