504
FXUS63 KBIS 180854
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
354 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread below freezing temperatures tonight into Sunday
  morning, and again Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- Breezy today, and windy on Monday.

- Near seasonable temperatures expected through early next
  week, followed by a warming trend to above normal mid to late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Weak cold front associated with a clipper system to the north
will push through today. Some shower activity will accompany
this front this morning along with abundant cloud cover. Look
for these clouds and showers to diminish the afternoon, with
slightly cooler temperatures in the 50s forecast. Breezy
northwest winds will be found behind this front today. Pressure
rises and cold air advection with this front look to peak this
morning, leveling out this afternoon. Mid level winds are not
forecast to be particularly strong today as well. Thus kept NBM
winds for today, which are still breezy yet not quite wind
advisory level. There could still be a few sites that see
sustained winds near 30 mph and winds gust near 40 mph today.
Ridge of high pressure then moves in tonight, diminishing winds
and clearing skies. Colder overnight lows will be found as a
result, although there remains some uncertainty on how much cold
air moves into the area given the track of the high is well to
the south. A steady west wind may also help keep temperatures
from dropping tonight. For now made sure lows were as low as NBM
50th. This would put widespread freeze temperatures to most
areas except the James River Valley. Given some uncertainty on
how much cold air is present tonight, have held off on any
freeze products for the time being. High moves eastward on
Sunday switching winds to the south. This brings slightly warmer
temperatures and mainly dry conditions.

Sunday night through Monday, dueling surface lows each with a
weak cold front will bring the next chances for showers across
the area. These chances begin Sunday night into Monday morning,
with the second round Monday afternoon into Monday night. The
increase cloud cover should temper overnight lows Sunday night
into Monday, yet bring cooler highs on Monday. SPC has general
risk for thunderstorms Monday in eastern ND, although
instability looks limited at this time. Main concern for monday
will be strong winds on the backside of the second low on
Monday. This could bring some strong at least advisory level
winds to the area, thus have blended in NBM90th for winds on
Monday into Monday evening. Surface ridge could then diminish
winds and precipitation chances Monday night. More cold
temperatures could also return with this ridge, with forecast
lows at or below freezing currently forecast for most of the
CWA.

A cooler yet mainly dry post system day is then expected for
Tuesday, with highs forecast in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The
rest of next week then still looks to see a warming trend as
zonal flow transitions to weak ridging aloft. This brings a
mainly dry forecast with temperatures forecast to warm through
the week. NBM spreads still remain about 10 degrees although the
cooler side still has highs in the 60s while the warmer spreads
are in the 70s. Low temperatures at night could also be mild,
with NBM spreads generally showing above freezing temperatures
at night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Isolated to scattered showers will move through tonight across
much of western and central ND. Generally VFR, to perhaps brief
MVFR, conditions are expected with these showers. Saturday will
see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and breezy to windy
westerly winds. Saturday night skies look to clear with winds
diminishing. Overall VFR conditions are expected Saturday
through Saturday night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin