


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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504 FXUS63 KBIS 180854 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 354 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread below freezing temperatures tonight into Sunday morning, and again Monday night into Tuesday morning. - Breezy today, and windy on Monday. - Near seasonable temperatures expected through early next week, followed by a warming trend to above normal mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Weak cold front associated with a clipper system to the north will push through today. Some shower activity will accompany this front this morning along with abundant cloud cover. Look for these clouds and showers to diminish the afternoon, with slightly cooler temperatures in the 50s forecast. Breezy northwest winds will be found behind this front today. Pressure rises and cold air advection with this front look to peak this morning, leveling out this afternoon. Mid level winds are not forecast to be particularly strong today as well. Thus kept NBM winds for today, which are still breezy yet not quite wind advisory level. There could still be a few sites that see sustained winds near 30 mph and winds gust near 40 mph today. Ridge of high pressure then moves in tonight, diminishing winds and clearing skies. Colder overnight lows will be found as a result, although there remains some uncertainty on how much cold air moves into the area given the track of the high is well to the south. A steady west wind may also help keep temperatures from dropping tonight. For now made sure lows were as low as NBM 50th. This would put widespread freeze temperatures to most areas except the James River Valley. Given some uncertainty on how much cold air is present tonight, have held off on any freeze products for the time being. High moves eastward on Sunday switching winds to the south. This brings slightly warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions. Sunday night through Monday, dueling surface lows each with a weak cold front will bring the next chances for showers across the area. These chances begin Sunday night into Monday morning, with the second round Monday afternoon into Monday night. The increase cloud cover should temper overnight lows Sunday night into Monday, yet bring cooler highs on Monday. SPC has general risk for thunderstorms Monday in eastern ND, although instability looks limited at this time. Main concern for monday will be strong winds on the backside of the second low on Monday. This could bring some strong at least advisory level winds to the area, thus have blended in NBM90th for winds on Monday into Monday evening. Surface ridge could then diminish winds and precipitation chances Monday night. More cold temperatures could also return with this ridge, with forecast lows at or below freezing currently forecast for most of the CWA. A cooler yet mainly dry post system day is then expected for Tuesday, with highs forecast in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The rest of next week then still looks to see a warming trend as zonal flow transitions to weak ridging aloft. This brings a mainly dry forecast with temperatures forecast to warm through the week. NBM spreads still remain about 10 degrees although the cooler side still has highs in the 60s while the warmer spreads are in the 70s. Low temperatures at night could also be mild, with NBM spreads generally showing above freezing temperatures at night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers will move through tonight across much of western and central ND. Generally VFR, to perhaps brief MVFR, conditions are expected with these showers. Saturday will see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and breezy to windy westerly winds. Saturday night skies look to clear with winds diminishing. Overall VFR conditions are expected Saturday through Saturday night. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin