865
FXUS63 KBIS 200044
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
644 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry tonight through this weekend.

- Above normal high temperatures mostly in the 40s to low 50s
  to finish out the week.

- Below normal temperatures are favored for the last few days
  of November.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Widespread cloud cover remains over the area with clearing
starting to show up late tonight into tomorrow as high pressure
works its way in. For early evening update, main change was to
adjust cloud cover a bit to reflect this trend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Quasi-zonal flow continues across the state. An upper level wave
moves through the area into eastern North Dakota. High
temperatures are forecast to warm into the 40s to lower 50s
ahead of a weak cold front. Patchy fog continues across the
northwest this afternoon slowly burning off, and could return
tonight across much of the southwest. Overnight low temperatures
are forecast to drop down into the 20s to 30s. High
temperatures tomorrow are forecast to be on the cooler side in
the upper 30s to mid 40s as a cold front moves through the
region tonight. Surface high pressure will move through the
region tomorrow leading to clearing skies and light winds.

An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify and progress across
the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Thursday into
Friday. This will place the Northern Plains in northwesterly
flow aloft. As a result, quiet conditions will persist into the
weekend. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the 40s to
50s through the weekend. There are no strong waves forecast to
move through the region this weekend, resulting in dry
conditions. Forecast models are picking up on a potential system
later next week bringing in a colder air leading to below
normal temperatures. However, there are some hints that a colder
airmass might not be as strong. As for precipitation there is a
lot of uncertainty, the ensembles are pretty consistent on a
clipper system remaining north in Canada the middle of next
week. This system will drop the aforementioned colder airmass
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Widespread MVFR ceilings over western and central North Dakota
will remain through much of tonight, with gradual clearing from
west to east Thursday morning. Parts of south central North
Dakota into the James River Valley can expect a period of IFR
conditions this evening before gradual improvement. Over western
North Dakota, patchy fog may develop late tonight resulting in
localized IFR visibility.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...JJS