746
FXUS63 KBIS 281809
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1209 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will continue to spread across much of western and
  central North Dakota today, continuing through tonight before
  ending later Saturday morning. Greatest snow amounts expected
  over southwest and across portions of south central North
  Dakota, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.

- Well below average temperatures are favored for this coming
  weekend and into early next week. Wind chill temperatures as
  low as 25 below zero will be possible both Saturday night and
  Sunday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

No significant changes with the update. Added mention of blowing
snow to the forecast, mainly across southwest ND. The main
area of snowfall continues mainly south and west of the Missouri
River and continuing to slowly move eastward. KDIK has been
reporting 1/2SM in snow, but otherwise not seeing any
significant reductions in visibility per most NDOT and NDAWN
webcams or surface obs. Coop observer in Medora reported 3" of
snow.

Latest RAP continues to show weakening of the frontogenetical
forcing associated with the main band of ongoing snow.
Meanwhile, a larger scale trough moving through western Montana
will continue to move toward ND, providing an area of lift that
should support additional light snow overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 921 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Overall, the forecast appears to be on track. A more pronounced
band of snow currently extends from around Dickinson
southeastward through much of Grant and Sioux counties. Per the
RAP, this area appears supported by strong frontogenesis in the
850-700mb layer along with strong warm air advection. RAP
continues to forecast a weakening of the frontogenesis through
the remainder of the morning, so would expect the band to become
more diffuse as well. Will continue to monitor for snow
accumulations in case any kind of upgrade is warranted, although
as mentioned in previous discussions the lack of strong winds
should limit impacts. The other consideration will be possibly
expanding the advisory eastward. Otherwise, KDIK is currently at
3/4SM in snow. Webcams across the region show some reduced
visibility at many locations, but roads overall do not appear
completely snow covered, even under the better radar returns.

UPDATE
Issued at 627 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Snow has developed southwest, and will continue to expand east
as the morning progresses. Only made some slight modifications
to POPs based on latest radar imagery and latest CAMs. See below
for more details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Currently, northwest flow aloft with a S/WV trough over the
Pacific Northwest region along with northern stream waves across
western Canada. Ridge of surface high pressure remains quasi-
stationary over central North Dakota into eastern South Dakota,
contributing to another morning of areas of fog and light sfc
winds. Sfc observations and web cam imagery continue to show
overall decent visibility, thus no plans for any elevated
messaging regarding the fog at this time. Bowman radar also
showing the initial area of snow approaching my southwest.

For today, aforementioned S/WV continues southeast into the
Rockies today, then into the Great Plains tonight. Mid
level/700mb closed low, now over north central Montana,
develops southeast across southwest and south central ND today
and this evening, coupled with a broad isentropic/upglide flow
regime in place across the Dakotas. Initially expect a band of
enhanced snow developing into southwest North Dakota early this
morning, then into far south central ND thereafter as there will
be a period this morning of Div Q forcing coinciding with a
band of frontogensis orientated northwest to southeast. Broader
mid level forcing/overrunning flow this afternoon and tonight
when the aforementioned 700mb low and the main upper wave will
be the main forcing mechanisms. BUFKIT analysis shows decent
lift in a modest DGZ, with snow ratios forecast to increase to
greater than 15:1 and perhaps closer to 20:1 by this evening.
Thus, despite limited liquid and low level forcing, we are still
expecting decent snow accumulations later today into tonight
west and south central.

With the greatest snow amounts still looking to be along and
south/west of the Missouri River, along with southern portions
of south central ND along the SD border, will keep the Winter
Weather Advisory as is at this time.

Large upper low settles over Hudson Bay to our north-northeast
this weekend, and will push a sample of Arctic air south into
the north central CONUS. Coldest period is still expected to be
Sunday, when high temperatures are only forecast in the single
digits and teens, along with widespread subzero lows Sat night
and Sun night with cold surface high pressure over the region.
Thereafter, northwest flow will dominate, with a variety of weak
disturbances passing through the region next week, each
bringing low to medium snow chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Surface low located well to our southwest is producing snow
across the state with radar showing the heavier snow across our
southwest. KDIK has been down to 1/2SM in snow, but expecting
some slight improvement in conditions there this afternoon. The
band of snow is slowly approaching KBIS so we should see snow
starting within the next couple hours. The system will move away
from the region overnight and Saturday but overall the next 24
hours should see MVFR or worse categories the majority of the
time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for
NDZ017>020-034-046-050-051.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for
NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...JNS