736
FXUS63 KBIS 292001
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
301 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog could develop in southwest and far south central North
  Dakota later tonight into Friday morning.

- Near normal temperatures through Friday, becoming above normal
  this weekend into early next week.

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light rain Friday night
  through Saturday, followed by medium to high chances (50 to 80
  percent) for rain Sunday night through Monday night, possibly
  lasting into Tuesday.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Currently, strong to moderate zonal flow aloft over the
Northern Plains with broad ridging from the Central Plains back
northwest across the Rockies. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure extends from southern Saskatchewan southeast into
western Minnesota. A few light showers continue across the
southern James River Valley into southeastern areas of the
state, associated with an area of low/mid level frontogensis.

Models continue to suggest fog redeveloping into parts of
southwest and south central ND later tonight, but have trended
south with the aerial placement last few runs. Will maintain in
the forecast for now.

Broad ridging aloft amplifies and develops east for the
upcoming weekend, trending temperatures warmer with highs in the
mid 50s to mid 60s Sat and Sun. At the same time, boundary
layer moisture increases thanks to a southerly mid level flow
transporting 50+ degree Td values. With embedded disturbances
moving through the flow aloft, sky cover will be robust along
with a chances for light showers/drizzle both days.

Deep upper level low pressure off the West Coast within long
wave troughing aloft will swing inland Sunday, then crosses the
Rockies and moves into the Great Plains Sunday night into
Monday. Ensembles and NBM continue to favor medium to high
chances for rain west Sunday night and area wide for Monday/Mon
night, with precipitation chances slowly decreasing Tuesday
from west to east as the main forcing departs to our east. Might
see chances linger longer on Tuesday depending the degree of
wrap around that occurs. QPF amounts are forecast to range from
around a quarter inch, with some area up to half an inch
possible. Precip type will be all liquid with this event.

Thereafter, ensembles suggest lots of uncertainty after Tuesday,
with near normal temperatures expected for now in the 40s and
50s and lows cooling to subfreezing by the middle of next week.
Precip chances will be heavily dependent on any upper level
feature moving through the region, and right now the forecast is
dry both Wed and Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR ceilings persist over far northwest and north central
North Dakota early this afternoon, with both KMOT and KXWA
trending SCT to SKC through 19-20Z. VFR conditions elsewhere.
Mainly light and variable winds expected during the 18Z period,
with an easterly component during daytime hours. A northwest
wind can be found across the north early to mid afternoon.

Models are leaning towards low level stratus and/or fog
redeveloping later tonight across southwest North Dakota, but
uncertain if this will impact the KDIK terminal. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are favored.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH