622
FXUS63 KBIS 290551
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog could return to southwest and south central North Dakota
  early Thursday morning.

- Near normal temperatures through Friday, becoming above
  normal this weekend and into early next week.

- Low chances for rain this weekend, then medium to high
  chances for rain on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Changes for this update were mainly to adjust sky cover across
the north to match observed and RAP modeled trends, and fog
coverage based on HRRR/RAP trends. The highest chances for fog
are in southwest North Dakota, but patchy fog could develop as
far east as the Missouri River Valley. Overnight/Thursday
morning minimum temperatures were also lowered to the south of
the low stratus.

UPDATE
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The latest NBM data is currently loading into the forecast. Hi-
res models have now backed down on the fog potential. Timing has
been pushed back to 10z now and is mostly now centered on the
southwest. The grids have been adjusted to show this.


UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A cold front across the northern half of the state keeps low
stratus around this evening. There is still a signal for fog
forming overnight across most of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Cloudy skies from a passing low will be found across the north
for much of tonight, while mainly clear skies are found south.
Some breezy northwest winds may also continue into this evening
from a passing cold front. Tonight, lows will be cooler and
generally in the 20s. Generally dryer air is forecast to move
in, although diminished winds and some lingering low level
moisture could return fog tonight into Thursday morning. Weak
ridging aloft will bring mainly dry conditions conditions for
Thursday. There are some indications a weak vort max could ride
over this ridge later in the day, perhaps bringing some isolated
rain showers. For now the forecast remains dry. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler yet near normal for Thursday behind
todays cold front. Ridging builds further for Friday, bringing
another day of dry conditions and mild temperatures. Some breezy
southerly winds may also return in the west later Friday as the
ridge moves eastward.

Friday night through Halloween will overall see mild conditions
with limited chances for precipitation. As the ridge pulls away
southerly flow will bring increased low level moisture to the
area with broad southwest trough like flow aloft. The result
could bring isolated rain showers, however NBM PoPs continue to
trend downward. The increased southerly flow and a weak warm
front could still bring mostly cloudy skies for Saturday, with
perhaps some mist, patchy fog, and drizzle at times.
Temperatures Saturday are forecast in the 50s for most areas,
although may be dependent on cloud cover. Similar mild
conditions with lower clouds could be found on Sunday, with some
increased southerly flow. Precipitation chances again look low,
although a repeat of patchy fog, mist, and drizzle may be
possible. Highs could enter into the 60s for Sunday, with
morning lows in the 40s. Clusters still indicate a broad cutoff
low will move across the central plains early next week. A split
surface low could provide for increased chances for mainly rain
to start the week, then most clusters have a large low in the
plains taking over. This would limit precipitation chances,
while bringing some cooler conditions by mid next week. Some
breezy winds may also be found during the progression of this
disturbance, mainly to start the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR ceilings will continue across northern North Dakota
through tonight, with clearing or lifting to VFR expected
Thursday morning. KXWA could remain just on the edge of the low
stratus through the night. Elsewhere, freezing fog could develop
across southwest and south central North Dakota early to mid
Thursday morning. The highest probability for persistent
visibility reductions is in the southwest, including at KDIK.
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals Thursday afternoon
and evening. Mostly light and variable winds are expected, but
west-northwest winds around 10 kts are possible overnight across
the north, and easterly winds could approach 10 kts in
southwest and south central North Dakota Thursday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Hollan