498
FXUS63 KBIS 161139
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain through tonight, with isolated thundershowers
  this morning. Rain may linger across the north during the day
  Friday.

- Areas of fog will continue through the morning, likely
  becoming more patchy in nature during the afternoon.

- Below average highs northwest to above average highs southeast
  today. Seasonable temperatures for Friday, through the
  weekend, and into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Showers are present across most of northern and eastern North
Dakota, with more isolated to scattered returns in the south
central and southwest. For the most part, thundershower activity
has ended within the state, though a line of showers has
developed in the south central that is producing a few rumbles
of thunder. As these showers continue pushing north, there may
be a period later this morning and early afternoon where dry
conditions prevail across much of the state. Nevertheless,
further development is expected today, especially across western
and northern portions of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Low pressure currently sits over northeastern Colorado/western
Nebraska and will push up through the Dakotas today through
tonight. A cluster of showers, occasionally with a few rumbles
of thunder, is present in the northwest, while a more organized
cluster of showers and thundershowers is present across much of
southern ND. This second cluster of showers and thundershowers
will lift up through the state during the early morning hours.
After which, most thundershower activity should push off into
northeastern ND and northern Minnesota. Areas of fog are present
across most of the forecast area and will persist through the
morning, though may become more patchy in nature this afternoon.

Additional showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of thunder, are
expected to develop this afternoon with the heaviest rain still
favored to occur in western and north central ND. Probabilities
remain in excess of 70 percent that a large portion of western
and north central ND will receive over an inch of total rain,
with the highest probabilities over the northwest. Once this
morning`s thundershowers pass through the south central, dry
slotting may limit additional rain totals. In fact, the sun may
even come out in portions of the south central and southeast,
which combined with warmer air pushing up from the south, could
create quite the contrast in temperatures today. The current
forecast maintains highs ranging from the upper 40s far
northwest to low 70s far southeast.

Showers are expected to linger in the north through Friday
morning, and possibly into the afternoon, before moving off to
the east. After which, mostly dry conditions are expected
through the weekend, with breezy conditions on Saturday.
Shortwave energy could produce a few showers Sunday night and
Monday, but otherwise mostly dry conditions will continue
through the middle of next week. High temperatures Friday
through the middle of next week will be mostly in the 50s to low
60s, while lows will be mostly in the 30s to low 40s. However,
Tuesday may see some cooler highs in the upper 40s across parts
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The aviation forecast remains complicated. While model guidance
suggests LIFR ceilings should be present across most all of the
state this morning and afternoon, the reality is that ceilings
have improved to IFR and even MVFR levels across parts of the
area. For the most part, these improvements occur as showers and
thunderstorms pass through, which means conditions may
deteriorate once again soon thereafter. Regardless, periods of
rain are expected to continue through much of the day today
through tonight, though there may be a break across a large
swath of the state later this morning and early afternoon.
Conditions will finally begin to improve across most of the area
late tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken