966
FXUS63 KBIS 272256
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
556 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures generally in the mid 70s to mid 80s through
  Labor Day, with lows in the 50s.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly south,
  Friday through Labor Day. The probability for severe weather
  is very low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

No mentionable forecast changes are needed for this update.
Current observations and trends were blended in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Broad ridging over the western half of the CONUS continues to
maintain seasonable high temperatures through Thursday, along
with mostly sunny skies. Although a few clouds may begin
entering western parts of the state Thursday afternoon as weak
surface low pressure starts to develop in eastern Montana. A
little patchy fog may develop mainly in eastern parts of the
state late tonight, though models only hint at it and forecast
soundings aren`t the most favorable either. Therefore, left fog
mentions out of the forecast at this time.

Upper low pressure will begin organizing over eastern Montana
Thursday night. Along with the aforementioned surface low, this
will very gradually slide eastward across the Dakotas Friday
through the weekend. Increased sky cover and a bit cooler,
albeit still seasonable, temperatures will be the more obvious
result for most. Though there are also low precipitation
chances in the far southwest late Thursday night through Friday.
As the low meanders eastward through the weekend, low
precipitation chances will spread eastward mainly across
southern parts of the state, or mostly along and south of I94.
Higher chances are currently more on the South Dakota side of
the border. Most precipitation that does fall this weekend will
likely be in the form of showers, although a few rumbles of
thunder are possible at times as well. The probability of any
severe weather occurring with any thunderstorms that develop is
very low at this time.

Models are in fair agreement that a more defined shortwave off
east Canadian low will pass through the region sometime during
the middle of next week, along with an associated cold surface
frontal boundary. As a result, the NBM has produced shower and
thunderstorm chances during the middle of the week, while
favoring another cooling trend. That said, the NBM ensemble
temperature spread remains quite high, especially on Wednesday.
This suggests a lack of agreement as to the timing of the
aforementioned cold frontal boundary and the upper level pattern
afterwards.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Aside
from gusty winds out of the north-northeast in northwest North
Dakota early this evening, winds should remain light and
variable through Thursday morning. Western North Dakota could
then see a 10 kt southeasterly breeze Thursday afternoon, with
lighter easterly winds over central North Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Hollan