644
FXUS63 KBIS 050902
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
402 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures for today about 20 degrees below average.

- Sub-freezing temperatures possible across the western half of
  the state late tonight into early Saturday morning.

- Frost again possible late Saturday night into early Sunday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Current surface analysis places low stretching through central
Ontario into Upper Michigan, while high settles along the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border into central/eastern Montana. Upper
level analysis places low over Ontario with broad cyclonic flow
stretching into the Northern Plains, while ridge remains over
the western CONUS. Over our area, a few very light showers
continue to pass through central North Dakota in the cyclonic
flow while a northwesterly breeze continues.

For today, breezy northwesterly winds will continue before
diminishing as surface low pushes off to the northeast and high
builds into our area. Will keep some isolated light showers in
the forecast through the day as the cyclonic flow aloft remains
in place.

Winds taper off tonight and skies clear as surface high slides
over. This sets the stage for a very chilly night with lows
dropping near and possibly below freezing over western into
parts of central North Dakota. Will leave ongoing Freeze Watch
in place as it continues to convey the ongoing situation well.

Surface high remains in place for Saturday, resulting in light
winds and mostly clear skies. High temperatures will be mainly
in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which would be average for early
October. Another night with lows in the 30s is then on tap,
which brings the threat for frost across all of western and
central North Dakota.

Aforementioned ridge over the west then tries to build its way
into the central CONUS to start the upcoming week, bringing
milder temperatures. Pattern becomes more active later in the
week as a few disturbances push through, bringing precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Areas of MVFR ceilings will spread over the area overnight,
remaining into Friday morning. Conditions will then improve by
mid-day, with VFR conditions then prevailing.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>021-031>034-040>044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS