593
FXUS63 KBIS 162057
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
357 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain through tonight out west, with isolated
  thunderstorms this afternoon. Windy conditions Friday and
  Saturday and likely returning Monday.

- Patchy fog will linger in the Devils Lake Basin to the Turtle
  Mountains.

- Near normal temperatures for Friday, through the weekend, and
  above normal temperatures into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

An upper level low over the eastern Wyoming continues to
progress toward North Dakota. Precipitation continues to move
northward across the western half of the state and should
continue to expand this afternoon and tonight. The NBM still has
high probabilities for over an inch of rain across the Montana
and North Dakota border. The surface low is in the vicinity of
the south central while the warm front extends up from Wishek to
Lamoure into the southeast. Thus, temperatures have warmed into
the mid 60s to 70s in the southern James River Valley. There is
some lingering patchy fog across the Devils Lake Basin, but is
forecast to move out of the region as the dry slot beginning to
infiltrate southcentral into northeastern North Dakota. The
remainder of the state has been in the upper 40s to lower 50s
due to the overcast low stratus. The upper low is forecast to
pass over North Dakota late tonight with the bulk of the wrap
around precipitation remaining out west. Overnight low
temperatures will remain in the upper 30s to 40s as lingering
cloud cover remains. There could be some patchy fog lingering
across the North tonight into early tomorrow morning. Rain will
be moving out of the north tomorrow morning as well.

As the upper level low moves out of the area tonight a tight
surface pressure gradient and increasing heights will result
in windy conditions Friday and Saturday. Skies should begin to
clear out tomorrow afternoon. Warm westerly winds and clearing
skies will help high temperatures to warm back into the mid 50
to lower 60s tomorrow afternoon. Another trough will pass
Saturday leading to windy conditions across the state. Winds are
forecast to range around 20-25 mph. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the 50s Saturday and the 60s Sunday. The
warmer temperatures Sunday are from an upper level ridge
building out west. Dry conditions will continue this weekend.
This upper level ridge will move quickly through the area with
another trough following the wake of the ridge by Monday. There
could be a quick hitting system rolling through the region.
Monday could be another windy day as front rolls through the
area with decent pressure rises. After Monday the upper level
pattern is forecast to transition to quasi-zonal with a drier
conditions likely by the end of the week. Next week looks to
remain above normal with increasing temperatures by the end of
the week. There could be another quick moving trough by the
middle of the week but some of the ensemble solutions are not in
agreement for this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

IFR conditions will continue to linger across much of the state.
Ceilings are forecast to increase across much of the state late
tonight into tomorrow. Rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or
two will continue across western North Dakota this afternoon
into tonight. Winds will continue to back from the east to
northeast to the west as a surface low moves through the region.
Some patch fog could form again tonight mainly out west and
north.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson