509
FXUS63 KBIS 200305
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1005 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High chances for light rain south and west of the Missouri
  River this evening through Sunday afternoon.

- Cloudy, humid, and cool on Sunday, with highs in the mid 50s
  to mid 60s.

- Gradual warming trend through the upcoming work week, with
  highs mostly in the 60s on Monday increasing to the 70s and
  lower 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The forecast remains on track. Current conditions and trends
were blended in for this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

No major forecast changes are needed for this update. Light
rain will continue to become more prevalent over southwest
North Dakota this evening through tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Surface low remains analyzed over the Central Plains with surface
high moving towards Ontario. This continues allowing for drier air
to win out over most of the state, except parts of the
southwest, resulting in little overall precipitation. Light
rain over parts of the southwest should increase in coverage
later this afternoon and especially overnight tonight. After
which, rain chances should gradually diminish through Sunday
night. A quarter to half inch of additional rain is likely over
the far southwest, but probabilities rapidly drop off further
north and east. Near the Missouri River, probabilities for even
a tenth of an inch drop down to around 50 percent, and rapidly
less further north and east of the river.

Despite the lack of precipitation across most of the state,
low-level stratus will prevail overall tonight through Sunday.
Though by late Sunday afternoon and through the night, skies
should begin to clear from north to south. This thick sky cover
will likely moderate temperatures with forecast lows remaining
warmer than the NBM produces, and highs potentially cooler than
forecast... more so for this afternoon than Sunday.

Dry conditions are then expected to prevail Monday through
Tuesday before a shortwave potentially brings another round of
showers, possibly with a few thunderstorms, through the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Seasonable temperatures are
expected to start the next workweek with highs initially in the
60s to low 70s. A gradual warming trend is then favored to
bring highs into the 70s with some low 80s degree readings in
western ND by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Light rain with MVFR/IFR visibility and primarily IFR/LIFR
ceilings will continue in southwest North Dakota through much
of the forecast period. Lower chances for light rain exist from
northwest to south central North Dakota where ceilings are
mostly expected to remain at or perhaps just slightly above
MVFR thresholds. Areas from around KMOT to KJMS are more likely
to stay dry with VFR ceilings, although intermittent periods of
MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out. Expect northeast to easterly
winds around 10 kts through much of the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Hollan