454
FXUS63 KBIS 160916
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
416 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for severe storms this morning in the southeast and
  the in the evening in the southwest.

- Active pattern with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
  during the workweek into next weekend. A few severe storms are
  possible, more notably later in the week.

- Overall temperatures remain around average for this time of
  year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A strong shortwave continues to pass through North Dakota
which brought forth severe weather across the southwest and
south central. A line of severe thunderstorms passed through the
southwest where it produced gusts of 94 mph in Hettinger and in
the south central where it produced a 64 mph gust in Grant
county. This system continues to decelerate and will produce
thunderstorms across the south central this morning. The
environment has weekend as instability remains around 1000 j/kg
of MU CAPE. The shear remains elevated with 35-45 kts of
effective bulk shear. At the moment there are is no severe
weather. There is another area of showers and thunderstorms
moving across north central North Dakota producing gusty down
drafts around 30-40 kts. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to move across the state west to east this morning. There have
been strong winds reported behind this system as a wake low
moves across the southwest and northwestern South Dakota.
Therefore, a high wind warning was issued for strong winds from
the wake low.

Widespread dense fog has been observed across the James River
Valley from surface observations and webcams. Therefore, a
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from Foster down to Dickey
county. Dense fog may clear has storms approach this morning.

Today temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s across the
state as surface high pressure moves into the region clearing
skies out. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the
50s. There is a low chance for thunderstroms and showers this
afternoon and evening and an isolated chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms this evening in the southwest. The upper
level flow will remain zonal with waves passing across the state
bringing in daily chances for thunderstorms and showers through
the week.


NSSL machine learning for severe probability is beginning to
ramp up probabilities Wednesday into the weekend as severe
weather may return to the area. This is due to instability
increasing and ample shear. A strong system may move into the
region later this weekend which could support severe weather
development as well. Temperatures will moderate, due to zonal
flow, around the 70s to lower 80s through the end of the week
before an upper level ridge amplifies across the Northern Plains
this weekend. The aforementioned strong upper level low digging
across the Pacific Northwest will cause the amplification of
the upper level ridge which will support warmer temperatures
across the southern half of the state Saturday. Temperatures
will trend lower as the upper low passes through the region
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thunderstorms and showers are forecast to move west to east
tonight into tomorrow. Thunderstorms could have gusty erratic
winds and hail. Amendments will be made for storms that develop
or move near the terminals. Low clouds will continue across the
eastern half of the state this morning clearing out later after
thunderstorms pass. Winds will veer out of the northwest as
showers and thunderstorms pass as well. Visibility reductions
are possible from heavy rain and low clouds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ025-037-
048-051.
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MDT early this morning for NDZ040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson