530
FXUS63 KBIS 041349
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
849 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front passes through this morning, with strong northwest
  winds in its wake. Strongest winds gusting to 60 mph over
  northwest and north central North Dakota.

- Areas of frost possible early Saturday morning and again early
  Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

The cold front has entered northwest North Dakota as of 830 AM
CDT. A 58 mph gust was reported at a RAWS site in the northwest
corner of Divide County, but other maximum gusts so far have
been more in the 40-50 mph range.

A pocket of thunderstorms embedded in a broader area of showers
is quickly moving southeast along the Highway 52 corridor. SPC
mesoanalysis shows no CAPE, so the lightning is likely being
driven by the strong dynamics of the approaching clipper.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Cold front about to push into northwest North Dakota from
northeast Montana/southeast Saskatchewan. Winds are gusting to
around 40 mph upstream, but expect this to be on the increase as
the front pushes through our area. Going forecast remains in
good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Current surface analysis places low over Ontario with cold front
now sliding into southeast Saskatchewan into north-central
Manitoba. Upper level analysis places deep low over Ontario and
ridging over the western CONUS. Potent short wave now dropping
through the prairie provinces. Over our area, quiet weather
continues ahead of the approaching front with a light south to
southwesterly wind.

For today, main concern continues to be the cold front and its
affiliated short wave moving through the area. Cold front will
enter northwest North Dakota early this morning, then continue
to traverse western and central North Dakota through the morning
with strong northwest winds in its wake. Forecast soundings
still suggest that most locations should see gusts to 55 mph,
but over a stretch of area including much of northwest North
Dakota, forecast soundings suggest that some 50 kt winds may mix
down, which could be aided by rain showers moving through.
Therefore, have decided to bump the northwest up to a High Wind
Warning with possible gusts to 60 mph.

In addition to the winds, rain showers are also expected to move
through, with greatest chances towards north-central North
Dakota. This may come in two parts, first with the frontal
passage then reinforced with the passage of the main upper wave.
Can not rule out a rumble of thunder, especially early on as
some lighting is already noted in southeast Saskatchewan. As
for smoke, some continues to linger over the area ahead of the
front, but latest guidance does clear it out as the day goes on.

Winds taper off over the area tonight, but still remain a bit
breezy. A few light rain showers may linger over parts of the
area as a secondary weaker wave passes through upper level
cyclonic flow.

A breezy but chilly day is still expected for Friday as cold
air continues to settle in, with highs only expected to climb
into the 50s over most locations. High settles in overnight
with winds tapering, which still looks to bring areas of frost
to western and possibly parts of central North Dakota. Surface
high remains over the area Saturday, resulting in another cold
night and additional frost potential for early Sunday morning.

Gradual warming trend on tap to start the upcoming week as
upper ridge pushes easterly keeping conditions dry. Pattern may
become more unsettled later in the week with the return of
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 848 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A strong cold front will push through the area today. Winds
will become northwesterly gusting around 40 to 50 kts, with the
strongest winds over northwest North Dakota. In addition, this
system will bring scattered rain showers to northwest and
central North Dakota which may enhance the wind gusts. VFR
ceilings continue early this morning, with ceilings
deteriorating to MVFR levels over parts of northwest and central
North Dakota later today into tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ001>003-
009>011-021.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ004-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS