671
FXUS63 KBIS 040537
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1237 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures through the weekend, warming to
  above average early next week.

- Mostly calm and dry next week. Breezy winds are possible on
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Limited changes needed at this time. High clouds will move
across the state tonight. Cool low temperatures in the 30s to
lower 40s are also expected, with some isolated areas near
freezing. Overall the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota
at the time of this mid to late evening update. The gusty
northwest winds earlier this evening have all but diminished
by this time. The forecast remains in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Gusty northwest winds have begun to diminish at the time of this
early evening update, and are expected to quickly become light
and variable in direction once the sun sets. No major
adjustments to the forecast were performed with this update as
it remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Breezy northwesterly winds in the wake of a weak cold frontal
boundary will continue through this afternoon before rapidly
diminishing this evening. Winds will become light and often
variable overnight, while initially clear skies should allow for
efficient radiational cooling to start. Though incoming high
clouds will likely limit temperature drops tonight. While the
NBM does saturate much of the forecast area to around 100
percent, this is likely due to the dynamics of averaging out
models within such a model blend. In other words, deterministic
guidance maintains a decent dewpoint depression. In addition,
near-surface winds aloft remain breezy which usually helps
prohibit or at least limit fog development. All in all, fog is
generally not expected tonight, though localized shallow fog
cannot be completely ruled out. Especially in locations where
incoming high clouds fail to materialize.

Lows tonight should generally remain above freezing and in the
30s to low 40s. However, similar to fog development, localized
freezing in traditionally colder spots is entirely possible,
especially in areas where incoming high clouds fail to
materialize. A warming trend is then expected through early next
week as a west CONUS ridge builds and advects warmer air across
the region. This will result in highs ranging from the mid 60s
in northeastern North Dakota to the mid 80s in the southwest on
Monday. Warmer air is then likely to move into eastern North
Dakota on Tuesday, with 70s returning to the southwest. After
which, a slight statewide cooling trend is expected through
midweek. Lows are favored to generally remain above freezing
through the next week.

The NBM maintains a completely dry forecast through next week.
However, WAA could result in a few showers Sunday night into
Monday. This is a low probability scenario overall due to
discrepancies between models in regard to mid-level moisture
availability, with an overall dry moisture profile favored. In
addition, potential shortwave energy Tuesday into Wednesday
could produce a round of showers. Beyond Wednesday, the ridge is
favored to flatten resulting in northwesterly flow aloft
through the remainder of the week, which also frequently
produces low precipitation chances that are difficult to
forecast well in advance. Bottom line is that mostly dry
conditions are expected through the next week, but a few weak
waves could produce light rain/showers at times when all is said
and done.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will
become light and variable tonight for most wester sites, with a
light northwest wind across the east. Light and variable winds
move across the central and east Sunday, while western areas see
a south wind develop. A steady south wind is then expected for
Sunday night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Anglin