962
FXUS63 KBIS 140255
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
955 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High chances for rain showers (70-100%) late tonight into
  Monday. Greatest chances over central and eastern North
  Dakota.

- Becoming windy tonight, with the strongest winds expected on
  Monday before diminishing Monday night. Gusts around 50 to 60
  mph possible over western North Dakota. Wind Advisory in
  effect for most of the area on Monday.

- Occasional rain shower chances mid to late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Quiet weather persists at the time of this mid to late evening
update. The strongest winds remain relegated to the far
southwest at this time, with gusts up to around 35 MPH observed
at Hettinger. Across the northwest, weak radar returns have
begun to cross over from northeastern Montana. Saturation
profiles across this area indicate that the overall potential
for precpitation reaching the ground is very limited (less than
10 percent), as conditions above the surface remain very dry.
Overall, the forecast remains in good shape at this time, with
no adjustments required at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Gusty southeast winds, sustained around 25 MPH and gusting as
high as 35 MPH, have begun to develop over far southwestern
North Dakota at the time of this early evening update. These
winds will spread across much of western and central North
Dakota overnight as the pressure gradient between the broad high
pressure to our east and the approaching low center to our
southwest slides across the forecast area. Otherwise, generally
quiet weather is found across the forecast area at this time. No
major adjustments to the forecast were performed with this
update, as it remains broadly on track at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge on the east side of the
Rockies and moving east into the Northern Great Plains. This
will keep much of the area under quiet and pleasant conditions.
A change in weather will occur later tonight. A low pressure
center, currently located over southeastern Washington, will
bring high chances for rain showers and increase winds.

Rain: The latest 12Z model convective allowing models have rain
starting as early as 1 AM MDT / 2 AM CDT, from the southwest
and expanding northeast through the rest of the morning. 12Z
HREF has over 75% chances for greater than half inch for the
event from Highway 52 and northeast. Chances for a quarter of
an inch or greater is 50% or higher from the Bismarck to
Williston and northeast. The southwest corner of the state has
lowest chances to receive anything above a tenth of inch, but a
few model members hint at a rumble or two which can add a little
more rain accumulation. Rain chances will diminish by the
midday to early afternoon, clearing from west to east.

Winds: At first, winds will predominately be from the
southeast today (in the southwest) and widespread tonight with
gusts up to 30 to 35 mph; the strongest winds will be in the
southwest portion of the state. As the low pressure center gets
closer, the pressure gradient will increase across much of the
state and switching the wind direction from the southeast to
more westerly to northwesterly. Winds will gust high as 50 to 60
mph by the afternoon. As result, there is a Wind Advisory in
effect starting at 12 PM CDT /11 AM MDT for the western half of
the area. The central and east will start 3 PM CDT. Winds will
start to relax by late Monday night.

Beyond Monday: Models show several weather disturbances passing
over the area, bringing chances for rain showers. The synoptic
pattern will bring a slight warming due to minor ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is found at all terminals to begun the
00Z TAF period. Early tonight, likely showers and some isolated
thunder will begin to increase from west to east through much of
Monday. MVFR to IFR ceilings and some MVFR visibilities are expected
to develop when and where showers are most persistant, mostly during
Monday morning. Showers are then expected to diminish through the
early afternoon, with ceilings improving fairly rapidly as showers
cease. Gusty southeast winds, with speeds up to 25 knots and gusts
up to 35 knots over southwestern North Dakota will spread across
much of the forecast area overnight, before turning to the west to
northwest Monday afternoon and becoming strong with sustained speeds
up to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots over portions of western
North Dakota. LLWS will be possible over north central North Dakota
early tonight through early Monday morning, mainly at KMOT ahead of
the strong winds spreading from the southwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Monday to midnight CDT
/11 PM MDT/ Monday night for NDZ001>003-009-010-017>020-
031>033-040>044-055>062.
Wind Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ004-
005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...KJS
AVIATION...Adam