350
FXUS63 KBIS 141454
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
954 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High chance (about 70 to 100 percent) for rain showers with a
  few thunderstorms today, though the showers will diminish from
  southwest to northeast over most locations later this morning
  into this afternoon.

- Gusty southerly winds will shift westerly behind a front from
  west to east today. Behind the front, winds will gust to 60
  mph over western North Dakota, and around 50-55 mph over
  central North Dakota. Western areas have been upgraded to High
  Wind Warning, Wind Advisory in effect elsewhere.

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon over
  south central North Dakota given drier air moving in behind
  the ending precipitation and the increasing gusty winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Bulk of the rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will
continue move eastward through the morning and early afternoon.
Radar shows some clearing west and southwest of Bismarck, but
that will be shortlived as there will several pop up showers
forming ahead of the front. So far, rainfall amounts have been
a tenth to a quarter of inch across most of the area. Several
locales faired better, such as the southeast portion, with
amounts of 1-1.5 inches from embedded thunderstorms. Forecast is
still track with the strong gusty winds from the southeast and
shifting to west by the midday.



UPDATE
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Rain showers and some thunderstorms continue to spread through
the area this morning with gusty southerly to southeasterly
winds. Going forecast reflects this well with no changes needed
at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Current surface analysis places deep low along the border of
northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana, with high over the
western Great Lakes. Upper level analysis places low along and
just north of the international border between southern Alberta
and northwest Montana. Over our area, a variety of short waves
lifting in southwest flow ahead of the low area continue to
produce showers and some thunderstorms now spreading through
western and central North Dakota, while gusty southerly to
southeasterly winds continue to the northeast of the
aforementioned surface low.

For today, upper low will continue to track easterly along the
international border with rain showers continuing to fill in
early this morning. In the meantime, surface low transitions
northward, crossing the intersection of the Montana, North
Dakota, and Saskatchewan borders around mid-day. As it lifts
northward this morning, drier air works in behind as a frontal
boundary pushes in, with precipitation gradually ending from
southwest to northeast. Ahead of the wind switch, breezy
southerly winds will continue, but behind the boundary, winds
will become westerly during the morning over western North
Dakota, and the afternoon central. Strongest winds will be over
western North Dakota where ample mixing of stronger winds aloft
shown on latest forecast soundings should result in gusts to 60
mph this afternoon into this evening. The argument for stronger
winds also continues to be reflected in the latest ECMWF-EFI
which has been persistant with values of 0.9 and above in this
area, and even showing some 0.95 with the latest run, readings
which have historically been in line with high wind warning
winds developing. The fly in the ointment, though, may be the
rather modest at best cold air advection, but still think the
strong winds will mix down. Therefore, have decided to upgrade
to a High Wind Warning generally from Hettinger to Dickinson to
Minot and points westward. Further east, wind gusts of 50 to 55
mph are expected, but will continue into the overnight hours
before starting to back off. Have decided to add McIntosh and
Dickey Counties to the Advisory given the anticipated higher
winds spreading further southeast than previously thought.

A concern that develops with the high winds and the drier air
moving in from southwest to northeast is fire weather,
especially over the southwest where humidity values may dip into
the 30s, possibly some upper 20s over the far southwest, which
may dry out fuels depending on how much precipitation falls. For
now, will advertise near critical fire weather conditions, but
will have to keep a close eye on our far southwest to see if a
Red Flag Warning may be needed if only little precipitation
falls.

System pushes off to the east-northeast for Tuesday, with
surface low sliding through Ontario. Some breezy conditions may
remain over central North Dakota in the morning, but should be
tapering off through he afternoon as the low continues its
departure. Dry conditions expected in its wake.

On Wednesday a rather strong by fast moving short wave moves
through, bringing a chance for rain showers to the area. Pattern
remains unsettled with low to medium precipitation chances in
the forecast to close out the week. Modest warming trend
expected for the last part of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to spread from
southwest to northeast early this morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings
and some MVFR visibilities are expected when and where showers
are most persistant. Showers are then expected to diminish later
in the morning through the early afternoon, with ceilings
improving fairly rapidly as showers cease, especially in the
southwest. Gusty southerly winds gusting to 30 to 40 knots will
turning to the west to northwest later this morning into this
afternoon and becoming strong with sustained speeds up to 35
knots and gusts up to 50 knots over portions of western North
Dakota, up to 40 knots elsewhere.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for
NDZ001>003-009-010-017>019-031>033-040-041-043-044-055>057.
Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for
NDZ020-042-058>062.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS/KJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS