272
FXUS63 KBIS 260516
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly below normal high temperatures expected over
  the next several days.

- Low chances for rain southwest and far south central tonight
  into Monday morning.

- Medium to high chances for rain and snow southwest, south
  central and eastern North Dakota Monday afternoon through
  Monday night. Light snow accumulations are possible.

- Another system may bring low to medium chances for light rain
  and snow to northern portions of North Dakota Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Made some minor adjustments to pops, otherwise no changes to
the going forecast. Light snow continues to push northward
through southwest ND. Precip is running into drier air so not
confident it will make it much farther north, especially as you
get farther east towards the Missouri River. Updated text
products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A few light rain showers, with a few snow showers in the far
southwest, continue to lift along the South Dakota border.
Previous forecast addressed this well, so no changes needed at
this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

For early evening update have pushed low to precipitation
chances along the South Dakota border a little further to the
north tonight as radar continues to show echos pushing well
into North Dakota. With that said, given the low level dry air
do not expect much to hit the ground.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Near zonal flow is found over the northern Plains this
afternoon in the wake of an exiting Hudson Bay low to our
northeast, and a building negatively-tilted upper level ridge to
our west. Clear skies are expected to persist across the north
this afternoon as surface high pressure bleeds in across the
International Border, while cloud cover will persist across the
south through the afternoon and overnight. Some isolated showers
will be possible over the south central this afternoon into
this evening, mainly where the influx of mid level moisture
meets a favorable area of ascent underneath the right entrance
region of a departing H3 jet. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions
are expected through this afternoon. Highs this afternoon are
forecast from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south, while
winds turning anticyclonically around the high pressure center
as it passes from west to east through the day.

Late tonight into Monday, a closed low over the southeastern
CONUS is progged to lift over the Rockies and into the northern
Plains. Some initial chances for precpitation (30 to 60 percent)
will develop across the south ahead of this system as
overrunning will promote increasing mid level saturation
profiles, with the highest potential found across the southwest
where better QG forcing is expected to develop overnight. Mainly
light rain is expected with this first round of precipitation
overnight, though some light snow may begin to mix in during the
coolest period of early Monday morning. With near to
subfreezing dewpt temps expected across much if not all of the
forecast area overnight, lows are forecast from the upper teens
to lower 20s north (where no cloud cover is anticipated), up to
the mid 20s to lower 30s south (where thick cloud cover is
expected to persist).

Higher chances for precpitation are then expected across
portions of the forecast beginning Monday afternoon as the
aforementioned upper level begins to lift across the Great
Plains proper. Deterministic guidance has begun to advertise a
much more diffuse, open wave passing over the North Dakota than
previous forecast cycles due to the interference of another
upper level low over the Pacific Northwest, Furthermore, model
guidance has begun to deflect the surface low pressure system
off the southeast as it contends with the presiding surface high
lingering over the southern Canadian Prairies through early
next week, which may keep the axis of highest QPF displaced
further to the south and east than earlier scenarios
anticipated. Still, medium to high (60 to 90 percent) chances
for precipitation are expected across much of southwestern and
central North Dakota Monday afternoon through early Tuesday,
with the highest chances across the southern James River Valley.
The main forecast challenge through this period is going to be
the P-types. An interrogation of BUFKIT sounds reveals that the
potential for snow across much of the forecast area is fairly
limited, mainly as saturation throughout the DGZ is fairly
transient. Some seeder-feeder effect over portions of the
southwest into the south central may be sufficient to get at
some moderate snowfall rates across this region, but locations
elsewhere will likely struggle to overcome the still-warm ground
temperatures to see much more than a brief dusting of snow.
Even where there`s a decent chance for accumulating snowfall (30
to 60 percent across the southwest into south central as per
the latest 5.2 NBM Calibrated Snowfall probability to exceed
0.1" of snow), an initial round of low SLR snowfall would
probably transition into more of a wintry mix through the early
overnight period into Tuesday morning you lose ascent and
saturation through the DGZ. Overall impacts from this event are
expected to be limited at this time.

Another round of precpitation is then possible across portions
of the northwest and north central Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning as the aforementioned upper level low in the
Pacific Northwest slides across Montana into the southern
Canadian Prairies. The ensemble currently is advertising medium
to high chances (60 to 90 percent) for a mix of rain and snow
as this low takes a more easterly track, though it remains
fairly split between this scenario (55 percent of members), and
one where a more westerly track will greatly limit our potential
for precipitation (45 percent). Neither scenario is expected to
promote any impacts across our area, with little to no QPF or
snow accumulation expected.

Behind this system, increasingly mild and dry conditions are
anticipated through the remainder of the workweek. There`s
decent ensemble agreement on "warming" temperatures through this
period as a transient ridge builds downstream of another
Pacific Low, promoting highs more broadly in the 50s and
potentially the lower 60s by this coming weekend. Looking ahead
to the weekend, the ensemble becomes increasingly discordant as
it attempts to resolve the track of this second Pacific Low,
either pushing again across the northern Plains into southern
Canada late Saturday through Sunday, thus promoting more chances
for precipitation across the forecast area, or diving it south
into the southern Great Plains, which will keep us mainly dry
through the weekend. Neither scenario is favored at this time,
thus we will monitor forecast trends through the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026


Ceilings will continue to lower to MVFR levels late tonight
into Monday morning over southwest North Dakota from southwest
to northeast, affecting the KDIK terminal around or just before
sunrise. KDIK will then probably remain in MVFR to low VFR
through the remainder of the TAF period. The low ceilings will
spread east along the South Dakota border Monday afternoon,
then lift northward to the I-94 corridor by the end of the TAF
period, 06Z. Expect an easterly surface flow through the TAF
period, generally 5 to 10 kts overnight then 10 to 20 kts Monday
through Monday evening. Flow will be more southeast over western
ND by Monday afternoon with some stronger winds in the
southwest, up to 25kts.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...TWH