487
FXUS63 KBIS 020900
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
400 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry with only a few hit and miss showers possible
  through the weekend.

- Near to above normal temperatures through the weekend, then
  cooler early to mid-week next week.

- Dry conditions combined with breezy to windy conditions could
  lead to near critical fire weather conditions this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A northwest upper level flow pattern will continue through the
forecast period. A couple of cold fronts, today through Monday will
be the main focus for impactful weather.

Currently, a cold front was situated over southeast Saskatchewan
with a cold front extending back into north central Montana.
Over western and central ND, a south to southwest surface flow was
situated over the area with increasing high level clouds dropping
south from Canada.

For today, the aforementioned cold front will push into northwest ND
this morning, and will extend from northeast through southwest ND
around midday and exiting the forecast area late this afternoon.
Highs are forecast to rise into the mid 60s north to mid 70s south
with breezy to windy southwest winds shifting to the northwest to
north behind the cold front.
Considerable cloudiness is expected today across the area, but the
chances for showers looks to be minimal. Our NBM guidance is
depicting an area of low pops (20-30%) dropping north to south
today, mainly east of the Highway 83 corridor. QPF will be limited
with mostly trace amounts, but some brief showers with some locally
gusty winds can not be ruled out. There are some fire weather
concerns and will mention these in the Fire Weather Discussion. It
will be breezy to windy today. The RAP is showing a small are of
near Advisory to Advisory criteria winds tracking from north central
into southeast ND behind the surface low.
This area of stronger winds propagates quickly with only a couple
hours of stronger winds. Overall, expect winds to remain below
advisory criteria, but will need to monitor.

Sunday will be another breezy to windy day with westerly winds
expected across the forecast area, ahead of another cold front that
drops through the area Sunday night into Monday morning.
Sunday will be another breezy to windy day with the strongest winds
forecast across northern ND. Will need to monitor for possible wind
advisory on Sunday, but too uncertain at this time. Low to medium
(20 to 30%) chances for showers track north to south Sunday night
through Monday, with once again, little in the way of any
significant precipitation. Monday will breezy to windy once again,
with significantly cooler temperatures, especially across the north.
Highs in the north Monday will be on the order of 15 to 25 degrees
colder than Sunday. Highs Monday range form the upper 40s north to
upper 50s south.

The majority of the upcoming work week will bring mostly dry weather
with a slow warming trend. Highs will remain in the mid 40s to low
50s on Tuesday and warming into the 60s by Friday and Saturday.
Other than a passing sprinkle or brief shower, dry conditions are
expected to prevail.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period.
A cold front will push through the area Saturday, with south to
southwesterly winds switching to the northwest and becoming
gusty. Mainly mid and high clouds expected with only a very
small chance of a sprinkle or brief shower with the cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Fire weather concerns highlight the forecast today through
Monday.

Today: Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across
southern and western North Dakota. A cold front will move southeast
through western and central North Dakota today. Ahead of the cold
front, temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 60s to lower
70s along and south of the I-94 corridor. In addition, dry air ahead
of the cold front will be in place across southern North Dakota. The
combination of the anticipated low humidities, with breezy to windy
southwest winds, shifting northwest will produce near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon.

Directly behind the cold front humidities are expected to rise
due to considerable clouds and slightly cooler temperatures.
However, much drier air will follow, pushing into the northwest
late in the afternoon into the early evening. Although winds
will be on the decrease here by late afternoon, there will be a
period where the winds and low humidities will combine to
produce near critical fire weather conditions behind the front
in the northwest.

Sunday: A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of
western and portions of central North Dakota.

Another cold front will move south through North Dakota Sunday
night. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures are expected to
rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s across western and central
North Dakota. Strong west winds are expected to develop ahead of
the front as well on Sunday. The strongest winds on Sunday are
expected to be over northern and eastern portions of the state.
Much of northwest and portions of central North Dakota will have
the potential to see Critical Fire Weather conditions Sunday
afternoon and early Sunday evening. Near critical fire weather
conditions are expected over the remainder of western and
central North Dakota.

Monday will be much colder than the weekend with humidities not
as low. However with strong to very strong winds expected, the
combination of the strong winds with low humdities may result
in near critical fire weather conditions over western and
central north dakota but winds on Monday will are expected to
remain strong, and the combination of strong winds and With warm
and dry conditions expected across western and central North
Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021>023-031-032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TWH