668
FXUS63 KBIS 040756
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
156 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium (20-40 percent) chances of rain today across
  the northern and central half of the state

- Near to above normal temperatures through Thursday, with a
  cool down to end the week.

- Low to medium (30-60 percent) chances for precipitation for
  much of the area return Thursday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Upper level zonal flow continues across the region today with a
an upper level wave forecast to move through the region. This
wave will bring rain chances across northern and central half of
North Dakota today. Rain accumulations are forecast to be
light. This wave will also bring increasing cloud cover across
the area. High temperatures are forecast to drop down into the
mid 40s to mid 50s as a weak cold front moves through the area
with increasing cloud cover. Overnight lows are forecast to drop
down into the 20s tonight as surface high pressure moves across
eastern Montana.

Upper level ridging will begin to build over the Northern
Rockies this will not really impact the temperatures
Wednesday, as high temperatures will see a subtle warm up, but
set the stage for a warm up Thursday. Temperatures are forecast
to warm into the lower 40s in the northeast and the lower 60s in
the southwest Thursday. The upper level ridge will dampen
Thursday as another upper level low passes through the region.
Thus, causing a 20 degree high temperature spread from the
southwest to the northeast. The northern half of the state has a
low to medium chance for rain during the day transitioning to a
rain snow mix at night. A cold frontal passage will likely lead
to windy conditions across the western half of the state during
the afternoon.

Upper level broad troughing across the Hudson Bay into the
Northern Plains will persist into the weekend leading to
lingering cold airmass across the state. High temperatures
Friday will range from the upper 20s in the northeast to the
upper 40s in the southwest. This colder air will remain trapped
through the weekend keeping temperatures below normal. Another
upper level low is forecast to move out of Saskatchewan Saturday
into North Dakota bringing in a low to medium chance for rain
snow mix across the state and windy conditions. Ensembles have
hinted at a return to upper level ridging out west come next
week which will likely bring back above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail tonight, with lowering ceilings
this morning and afternoon. Winds will remain light tonight,
then will shift to the northwest on today behind a frontal
passage. MVFR ceilings are expected across northern terminals
during the day, along with chances for light rain, as a weather
disturbance moves east across the Northern Plains.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson