407
FXUS63 KBIS 080604
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
104 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy on Tuesday, with near-critical fire weather conditions
  across southwest and south central North Dakota.

- Cooler Tuesday and Wednesday. A brief warm up on Thursday
  could be followed by much cooler temperatures next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Isolated showers with a few stray claps of thunder continue
mainly over southwest and south central North Dakota as a
variety of weak waves continue to swing around upper low passing
through southern Saskatchewan.

UPDATE
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Severe storms have weakened and all convection as died down. No
updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on
track.

UPDATE
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A pseudo dry line continues to push eastward near the Highway
83 corridor. There is a super cell out front of the pseudo dry
line that has produced a tornado already continues to push
eastward into a favorable environment for tornado genesis the
next couple of hours. This has has been the only storm able to
break the cap and go severe. There is another cell west of Minot
that is currently stuck behind it`s outflow which has kept the
storm subsevere for now. Cells continue to try to go up along
the pseudo dryline however this mornings cloud cover and cooler
temperatures has really restabilize much atmosphere upwind of
these causing this strong CAP. If other storms get established
there is plenty low level SRH across the central half of the
state that could lead to another spin up and there is plenty of
CAPE and shear to sustain supercells.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A dynamic system continues impacting the forecast area. Currently,
surface low is located over eastern Montana/southwestern North
Dakota, while upper low is primarily over north central Montana
propagating into south central Canada. For the most part,
thunderstorms from earlier today have exited the CWA. However,
another severe weather threat persists this afternoon, and seems
especially focused along and west of Highway 83 where skies
cleared out quicker in the day. RAP analysis suggests a narrow
corridor of enhanced instability this afternoon that will be
collocated with 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear. Wherever this
ultimately sets up would be the primary focus for severe
weather. With bulk shear vectors generally perpendicular to the
frontal boundary off the surface low, supercells are possible
that could lead to large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or
two cannot be ruled out, especially near the surface low.

By this evening, any remaining instability should rapidly decrease
as dry air moves in, while CIN increases. Thus any severe weather
threat should also diminish as the sun sets. After which, a few
showers are possible mainly in the north on Tuesday, with additional
rain chances overnight. Gusty westerly winds will develop Tuesday
as the surface low lifts northeast, especially in the northern
half of the state. Though pressure rises and CAA advection
aren`t the strongest, there was enough confidence to issue a
Wind Advisory for most counties north of I94.

For Tuesday, the strongest winds are not collocated with the
driest air. Still, critical fire weather conditions are
possible in the far southwest. In addition, near critical
conditions are expected in the remainder of the southwest and
south central. Drier conditions and breezy winds could once
again produce near critical to critical fire weather conditions
across much of the southwest and south central on Thursday.

Beyond Tuesday, mostly dry conditions are favored through the
remainder of the workweek. After which, widespread
precipitation chances return Sunday and into early next week.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be seasonable before
another brief warm-up Thursday. A cooling trend is then expected
this weekend and into early next week with highs possibly in
the upper 50s and 60s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue over southern
North Dakota overnight tonight. On Tuesday morning, some low
stratus may make its way into northwest North Dakota affecting
the KXWA terminal, but this is expected to only be for a few
hours, with improvement by mid day. West to northwest winds will
also be on the increase, especially over northwest and north
central North Dakota where gusts to around 45 kts are expected.
Further south will still be windy, with gusts to 35 kts. The
winds will gradually diminish this evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-
017>019-022-023-025-055>058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...JJS