281
FXUS63 KBIS 291455
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
955 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near seasonable high temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s
  today through Labor Day, with lows generally in the 50s.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible today
  through Sunday, mainly south, shifting to the east on Labor
  Day. The probability for severe weather remains low.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms may linger into mid next
  week, with cooler temperatures possible mid to late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Weak to moderate reflectivities continue to stream into
southwestern North Dakota at the time of this mid morning
update, circulating around a low pressure center analyzed over
western South Dakota. Showers so far have been light, with only
a trace to a few hundreths of an inch of rainfall observed.
These showers are expected to expand eastward across south
central North Dakota through the late morning and afternoon
today, with a few rumbles of thunder possible through the early
evening. Otherwise, visibility has begun to improve at the few
weather stations that have been observing patchy fog this
morning. Overall, no adjustments to the forecast were performed
with this update as it remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Limited changes needed at this time. NDARB radar in Bowman
confirms shower activity has entered the southwest. Meanwhile,
weak instability in the southeast has made a few isolated
showers. Made minor PoP adjustments based on these current radar
trends, although the forecast mostly remains on track. Some
mist and patchy fog reports are coming in the James River
Valley. Have added patchy fog mention as a result, although any
fog that can form is expected to be brief this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Cut off upper lower meandering underneath a broad ridge will
bring increased clouds and chances for showers and thunderstorms
today. The higher chances will come mainly along and south of
Interstate 94, with enough instability in these areas for a few
thunderstorms at times. The lack of shear and stronger lift will
limit the threat for severe weather today. Elsewhere could see
an isolated shower develop this afternoon and evening, although
confidence was not high enough to include precipitation mention
at this time. Temperatures may cool slightly into the 70s today
across the more cloudy areas in the south, while remain in the
80s north. Winds will also be light today although may become a
light east southeast wind this afternoon. Tonight, the mentioned
upper low shifts more into South Dakota, although may still
linger some showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the
south. Look for lows in the 50s along with light and variable
winds. Some hi-res models show fog returning tonight into
Saturday, although cloudy skies may limit this potential. For
now have left out fog mention in the forecast. Upper low slowly
drifts southward on Saturday. This combined with some weak
instability could bring some shower and thunderstorm chances to
the south through the day and evening. Areas with abundant cloud
cover will once again be in the 70s, with 80s in the north. A
light southerly wind is also forecast for Saturday. Most areas
then look to see high temperatures return in the mid 70s to mid
80s Sunday and Labor Day, with lows remaining in the 50s. North
Dakota will be in an weakly unstable transition zone between the
upper level low and an approaching cold front to our north. The
result could be some isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
south on Sunday and across the east on Labor Day. A light
southerly wind looks to remain Sunday, possibly switching to the
west on Labor Day.

Cold front still forecast to move out of Canada sometime
Tuesday. This could bring breezy winds and chances for showers
and thunderstorms. There is some limited instability yet
stronger shear with the passage of this front on Tuesday.
Depending on timing, perhaps an isolated stronger storm is
possible. Cooler temperatures will start to filter in behind the
front, with highs in the 60s across the north and 70s south.
Mainly dry and perhaps breezy and times northwest flow then
looks to set up mid to late next week. There is high confidence
in cooler temperatures at least initially after the passage of
the cold front, with highs only forecast in the 60s, and morning
lows in the 40s, on Wednesday. The rest of the work week is
currently forecast to see continued below normal temperatures
with highs generally in the mid 60s to mid 70s, and lows in the
40s with perhaps some upper 30s at times. NBM spreads later in
the week still remain large. This is likely due to some clusters
building the next western US ridge slightly further inland which
would bring some more near normal temperatures to the region.
ECMWF EFI values are hinting at cooler high and low temperatures
to end next week, with little signal for any strong winds. Thus
confidence is moderate that cooler temperatures will be found
compared to this week, although how much below normal these
temperatures are is still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Mid to high level clouds will be found to most sites through the
period. Low VFR to perhaps MVFR ceilings may be found from KDIK
to KBIS to KJMS and southward today through this evening.
Confidence was not high enough to include MVFR ceilings at this
time, except for in a PROB30 group for showers at KDIK. A
chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms may be found
across much of the south today through tonight. Confidence was
not high enough to include in most TAFs, except for a PROB30
group in KDIK. Patchy fog will also be possible this morning,
with a TEMPO group for BR now placed in at KJMS. Light and
variable winds this morning will become a light east southeast
wind today, returning to light and variable tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin