143
FXUS63 KBIS 171849
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
149 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Medium to high chances for rain across western and central
  North Dakota tonight through Friday, especially south of I94
  and north of Highway 2. High chances for rain continue in the
  west through much of the weekend.

- Seasonable temperatures through early next week, with highs
  mostly in the 60s and 70s.

- Patchy fog may develop again in western North Dakota tonight
  into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For this afternoon through tonight, lowly amplified ridge will
slide across the state bringing WAA and increased moisture aloft
across the CWA. Simultaneously, surface low will continue to
organize over Colorado, while high pressure over southern
Manitoba propagates eastwards into western Ontario. This will
result in increasing sky cover at the mid/upper levels this
afternoon and evening before another round of low-level stratus
advects in from the south tonight. Rain is possible tonight with
the highest chances south of I94 and also north of Highway 2.
Low chances remain the forecast elsewhere. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible in the north, though should be limited in
areal coverage overall.

Beyond tonight, high pressure over Ontario moves off to the east,
though is quickly reinforced by another blocking high. As a result,
precipitation chances and rain totals continue backing off for
most of the area Friday through this weekend. That said, high
chances remain in far western North Dakota Saturday afternoon
through Sunday. Forecast rain totals are generally between a
tenth and quarter inch with locally higher amounts possible.
Mostly dry conditions are then forecast to start the next
workweek with low chances returning during the middle of the
week.

With a few exceptions, temperatures are generally forecast to remain
seasonable over the next week with highs mostly in the mid 60s to
mid 70s, and lows mostly in the mid 40s to low 50s. See
weather.gov/bis for the exact temperature forecast at your location.
Otherwise, a few models indicate that relatively brief, patchy
dense fog could return tonight mainly in western North Dakota. A
southeasterly wind component and dewpoints remaining in the
upper 50s support this notion. However, said winds remaining
breezy and a potential rain producing stratus deck already in
place could result in a failure for fog to develop at all, or at
least result in limited visibility reductions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Any lingering fog and low-level stratus should rapidly dissipate
over the next couple hours, at which point VFR ceilings and
visibility should prevail through the remainder of today. An
encroaching system will bring MVFR/IFR ceilings across much of
the state from south to north tonight into Friday morning. In
addition, scattered showers are possible with the highest
chances both south of I94 and north of Hwy 2, with lower chances
in between. A few rumbles of thunder are not out of the
question near the International Border, though the overall
probability for any location is low. Patchy fog may develop
again in western North Dakota, though could be hindered by a
combination of sky cover, rain showers, and/or steady winds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken