259
FXUS63 KBIS 290849
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
349 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near seasonable high temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s
  today through Labor Day, with lows generally in the 50s.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible today
  through Sunday, mainly south, shifting to the east on Labor
  Day. The probability for severe weather remains low.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms may linger into mid next
  week, with cooler temperatures possible mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Cut off upper lower meandering underneath a broad ridge will
bring increased clouds and chances for showers and thunderstorms
today. The higher chances will come mainly along and south of
Interstate 94, with enough instability in these areas for a few
thunderstorms at times. The lack of shear and stronger lift will
limit the threat for severe weather today. Elsewhere could see
an isolated shower develop this afternoon and evening, although
confidence was not high enough to include precipitation mention
at this time. Temperatures may cool slightly into the 70s today
across the more cloudy areas in the south, while remain in the
80s north. Winds will also be light today although may become a
light east southeast wind this afternoon. Tonight, the mentioned
upper low shifts more into South Dakota, although may still
linger some showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in the
south. Look for lows in the 50s along with light and variable
winds. Some hi-res models show fog returning tonight into
Saturday, although cloudy skies may limit this potential. For
now have left out fog mention in the forecast. Upper low slowly
drifts southward on Saturday. This combined with some weak
instability could bring some shower and thunderstorm chances to
the south through the day and evening. Areas with abundant cloud
cover will once again be in the 70s, with 80s in the north. A
light southerly wind is also forecast for Saturday. Most areas
then look to see high temperatures return in the mid 70s to mid
80s Sunday and Labor Day, with lows remaining in the 50s. North
Dakota will be in an weakly unstable transition zone between the
upper level low and an approaching cold front to our north. The
result could be some isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
south on Sunday and across the east on Labor Day. A light
southerly wind looks to remain Sunday, possibly switching to the
west on Labor Day.

Cold front still forecast to move out of Canada sometime
Tuesday. This could bring breezy winds and chances for showers
and thunderstorms. There is some limited instability yet
stronger shear with the passage of this front on Tuesday.
Depending on timing, perhaps an isolated stronger storm is
possible. Cooler temperatures will start to filter in behind the
front, with highs in the 60s across the north and 70s south.
Mainly dry and perhaps breezy and times northwest flow then
looks to set up mid to late next week. There is high confidence
in cooler temperatures at least initially after the passage of
the cold front, with highs only forecast in the 60s, and morning
lows in the 40s, on Wednesday. The rest of the work week is
currently forecast to see continued below normal temperatures
with highs generally in the mid 60s to mid 70s, and lows in the
40s with perhaps some upper 30s at times. NBM spreads later in
the week still remain large. This is likely due to some clusters
building the next western US ridge slightly further inland which
would bring some more near normal temperatures to the region.
ECMWF EFI values are hinting at cooler high and low temperatures
to end next week, with little signal for any strong winds. Thus
confidence is moderate that cooler temperatures will be found
compared to this week, although how much below normal these
temperatures are is still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Mid to high level clouds will be found to most sites through the
period. Low VFR to perhaps MVFR ceilings may be found from KDIK
to KBIS to KJMS and southward Friday through Friday evening.
Confidence was not high enough to include MVFR ceilings at this
time. A chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms may be
found in the southwest tonight, spreading to much of southwest
and south central North Dakota Friday. Confidence was not high
enough to include any precipitation mention on the TAFs at this
time. Winds will be light and variable tonight, becoming a light
east southeast wind on Friday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin