580
FXUS63 KBIS 172000
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
200 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off low to medium chances for light rain today through
  Wednesday night, with a 20 percent chance of light freezing
  rain in north central North Dakota tonight.

- Patchy fog tonight in the far southwest.

- Near to above normal temperatures this week, with highs each
  day mostly in the upper 30s to lower 50s.

- Colder temperatures and above normal precipitation are favored
  for the last week of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Split flow is found over North Dakota today as a stacked upper
level low crosses from east to west across SD/NE. Scattered
precipitation can be found across western and central North
Dakota this afternoon and evening as mid level warm air
advection and isentropic ascent ticks up to the north of the
low, all the while moisture streams in from the southeast. The
highest chances for precipitation (20 to 40 percent) remains
along an axis draped roughly from New Town to Jamestown through
this afternoon, and is anticipated to fall mainly as rain
throughout this period. That begin said, there is also a low (10
to 20 percent) potential for some freezing drizzle/rain along
the northernmost edge of this precipitation if it lingers into
the mid to late evening. In this circumstance, a light glaze of
ice is not impossible over portions of north central North
Dakota, mainly on elevated surfaces. Overall precipitation
totals through tonight are anticipated to be fairly light, with
a few hundreths QPF advertised by the ensemble. The highest
potential for measurable QPF is found to the north of Lake
Sakakawea, where slightly better forcing is progged to develop
in the late afternoon and evening. Otherwise, persistant cloud
cover across the forecast area and highs broadly in the 40s are
expected today, with some upper 30s possible in the Turtle
Mountains and James River Valley.

The bulk of synoptic forcing is anticipated to diminish this
evening as the aforementioned stack low exits east toward the
Great Lakes Region overnight. That being said, another round of
low PoPs is anticipated overnight as a transient and weak
shortwave traverses through the near zonal flow found over the
region. Despite a general cooler column, a potential warm nose
aloft due to ongoing WAA indicates that more freezing
drizzle/rain is again possible during this period, mainly in the
Turtle Mountains region, though comparably dry conditions is
anticipated to minimize ice accumulations. Otherwise, for
tonight, patchy fog is possible in the far southwest as winds
die out and cloud cover begins to diminish.

Mainly dry conditions are then anticipated through the day
Tuesday as transient ridging sweeps through the northern Plains.
Cloud cover somewhat diminishes through this period, though
only becoming partly to mostly cloudy before a reinforcing
northern stream wave starts to push across the southern Canadian
Prairies in the late afternoon, early evening. With this, light
precipitation is also possible during this period, with low
chances (10 to 20 percent) spreading from the southwest across
central North Dakota Tuesday evening through Wendesday night.
That being said, interrogation of model soundings during this
period reveal a fairly warm column and dry near surface
conditions, indicating that fairly low amounts of mainly liquid
precipitation is anticipated to reach the ground by the time
synoptic forcing diminishes Wednesday night. Portions of north
central North Dakota may see some limited wintry-mixed
precipitation by the time precipitation diminishes Wednesday
night. Overall impacts associated with this wave are anticipated
to be low at this time. Otherwise, high temperatures both
Tuesday and Wendesday are forecast to be slightly warmer, from
the lower 40s north central to the lower to mid 50s southwest.

Slightly cooler conditions are then on the docket Thursday as a
cooler air mass settles over the northern Plains, with morning
lows from the lower 20s west to lower 30s southeast and
afternoon highs broadly in the 40s. The ensemble becomes
increasingly discordant through beyond this timeframe, as model
members attempt to reconcile the timing and northward
displacement of an another upper level Pacific low through the
second half of the workweek. Cluster analysis reveals two broad
scenarios at the time of this forecast cycle. A slight majority
(45 percent of members) favor a near zonal flow regime as the
aforementioned low remains far the south, which would keep the
northern Plains near to slightly above normal temperatures for
this time of year. This scenario would also be the drier of the
two in the long term, though transient shortwaves could induce
brief low to medium PoPs over portions of the forecast area. A
minority cluster also exists (35 percent of available model
members), which instead favors a split flow regime persisting
through the weekend as the low slowly meanders north. Highs
throughout this period would be near normal, and with some
potential for precipitation near the end of the week/early next
week as the low approaches the forecast area. Beyond this
period, however, long term guidance leans toward near to below
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation through the
end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Mainly VFR ceilings and visibilities are anticipated at all
terminals throughout the 18Z TAF period. Isolated to scattered
precipitation is anticipated across portions of southwestern and
central North Dakota this afternoon through tonight. Mainly
light rain is anticipated, though brief periods of freezing
drizzle/rain is possible across portions of central North
Dakota. Confidence in such is too low to include at any given
terminal at this time. With this update, have added PROB30
groups for light rain at KBIS and KJMS late this afternoon and
early this evening. Gusty east to southeast winds, with speeds
up to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots are anticipated this
afternoon, in northwestern and south central North Dakota. All
winds are anticipated to diminish this evening, turning light
and southerly through Tuesday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam