425
FXUS63 KBIS 211415
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
915 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain ending this morning.

- Gradual warming trend through the upcoming workweek, with
  highs mostly in the 60s on Monday increasing to the 70s and
  lower 80s by the end of the week.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through
  Wednesday night, otherwise mostly dry through the workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

There was some patchy fog that formed along the border this
morning is quickly dissipating this morning. No other updates
are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

a persistent band of sprinkles/light showers remains over
northern portions of the forecast area. Activity has diminished
in intensity over the past hour or so. Isolated sprinkles
continue to dissipated over the far south central. For the
update, went with a broad area of sprinkles through mid morning
over much of central ND and kept a small area of sprinkles mid
to late morning. Day shift can nix if this precip dissipates.
Also made some small adjustments to sky cover based on latest
satellite imagery.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The upper level low that has been hanging around all weekend
will exit the area today with weak high pressure at the surface
and aloft over the area today.

Currently, scattered light showers were situated over the far
south central portion of the state. Although the showers were
propagating westward around the mid-upper level circulation, the
entire system continues to track off to the east. In the north,
a shortwave impulse was producing shower activity along the
Highway 2 corridor in northwest/north central ND. There have
been a few areas of higher reflectivity (showers) and Minot has
seen some measurable precipitation so will mention some isolated
to scattered showers prior to 12Z, with isolated sprinkles this
morning.

Skies were mostly cloudy and so far there has been little if
any development of fog. Still have a mention of some patchy fog
in the far north and far south through mid morning and hoping
this will hold. There does look to be some fog over southern
Canada and if skies clear in the far north, could still see some
patchy dense fog develop. Will monitor.

For today. Look for mostly cloudy to cloudy skies this morning
with clouds decreasing during the day. It will be cool again,
with highs mainly in the 60s. Clear to partly cloudy tonight
with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Dry on Tuesday with temperatures once again mainly in the 60s.
We will see increasing southerly surface winds Tuesday and
Wednesday, strongest in the west Tuesday, then central ND
Wednesday. This is due to increasing gradient winds between
blocking high pressure to our east and developing low pressure
in the lee of the Rockies.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night a shortwave trough tracks
southwest to northeast across the forecast area bringing medium
to high chances for showers to most of western and central ND.
Currently the NBM probability of at least a quarter inch of rain
from 12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday is highest (60 to 70%) over
south central ND, and tapers to 30-40% over southwest ND. The
lowest probabilities (less than 20%) are currently over
northwest ND, an then increase to 40 to 60% in north central ND.
We will see if this placement changes as we get closer to
Wednesday, but at this time it looks like a pretty broad area of
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to track across the
forecast area.

Upper level ridging then builds over the forecast area late in
the work week and this is when we expect to see a noticeable
warm-up as temperatures climb into the lower 80s over portions
of the west, with 70s over central ND. Dry conditions are in
store for Thursday and at least the first half of Friday. An
approaching upper level northern stream trough and southern
stream shortwave trough could bring low to medium precipitation
chances later Friday and into the first half of the weekend. It
does appear that temperatures will cool a little over the
weekend, but will remain seasonable, in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions to begin the 12Z TAF period and expect VFR
conditions today and this evening at TAF sites. There may be
some MVFR-IFR ceilings in the far southwest through this
morning, before lifting/dissipating by early afternoon.
Southwest ND may also see low stratus return later tonight in
the 06-12Z timeframe. In general though, expect decreasing VFR
clouds today from north to south. Expect an east to southeast
surface flow 5 to 15 kts through the 12Z TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH