231
FXUS63 KBIS 141837
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
137 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and thunderstorms chances will be reducing
  through the rest of ther afternoon. Lingering chances will
  remain northern areas through tonight.

- Gusty westerly winds today with gusts to 60 mph over western
  North Dakota, and around 50-55 mph over central North Dakota.
  Western areas have a High Wind Warning and a Wind Advisory in
  effect elsewhere.

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon over
  south central North Dakota given drier air moving in and the
  increasing gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Latest surface analysis shows the front along the western
portion of the state. The surface low is just to the north of
the state and it has started to lift out into Canada. It will
continue to move out through the afternoon. Linger rain showers
will continue as it gets wrap around the low, especially along
the international border. The area will clear out of the rain
showers and low cloud cover as the front passes by. Winds will
be predominately out of the west by the afternoon, thanks to the
frontal passage, and it will bring very strong gusts across
much of the state. 12Z HREF has large swath of 60-80%
probabilities of 50 mph or higher behind the front, starting
from the west and moving east throughout the day. There is a
narrow swath of 20-50% probabilities of 55 mph, but it mainly
confined to areas west of Highway 82. As result, a High Warning
is in effect for the western portion of the state and a Wind
Advisory for everywhere else through the tonight. Winds will
slacken below warning and advisory by the late night.

On top of the strong gusty winds, dry air has started to
filter into the southwestern portion of the state. It is
evident on the water vapor imagery and the latest 12Z model
runs continue to show this dry slot lasting through the
afternoon. Strong winds and dry air will bring near critical
fire weather conditions late this afternoon for the far
southwestern counties.

Going forward with the rest of week, a ridge will build back
over the region, leading a calmer day tomorrow. Winds will still
be elevated through the day, but lower than today. Another
weather feature will bring another round of rain shower chances
on Wednesday. Ensemble models show the pattern will be unsettled
for the last half of the week and into the weekend. Another low
pressure center is poised to develop and move across the western
states. There is uncertainty on the progression of this feature
at the present moment. For now, chances for rain showers will
return through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to
push east throughout the day. Chances for rain showers will
diminish after 21Z in the southern terminals and after 06Z for
the northern most terminals. MVFR to IFR conditions will improve
to VFR after the showers, starting in the southwest and
expanding east and north through the afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds will prevail for majority of the forecast period
as the front moves through the area this afternoon shifting
winds from southeasterly to westerly/northwesterly. Gusts will
be 40 to 50 knots for the western areas of the state and up to
40 kts for everywhere else. Winds will reduce in speed in the
late night but still gusting up to 30 kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for
NDZ001>003-009-010-017>019-031>033-040-041-043-044-055>057.
Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for
NDZ020-042-058>062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJS
AVIATION...KJS