174
FXUS63 KBIS 031342
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
842 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over
  central into eastern North Dakota this afternoon and early
  evening.

- Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
  through the remainder of the week.

- Highs in the 70s and 80s through the workweek, warming into
  the 80s and lower 90s for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Isolated to scattered showers continue across much of the state,
though no thunderstorms are currently present. A few
thunderstorms may develop later this morning as instability
increases, with higher chances in the afternoon. All in all, the
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Minor updates to sky cover and pops again based on the latest
radar and satellite info. Otherwise, no significant changes to
the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Surface high pressure in the Great Lakes region and into the
upper Midwest will move southeast today, while the upper level
slow over southern Saskatchewan begins to move ever so slowly
east towards Manitoba this morning, but picks up speed this
afternoon. Although moisture transport into the local areas
begins to break down today, we still have abundant residual
moisture over the James River Valley and into eastern North
Dakota. As the Saskatchewan upper low tracks east today we see a
70 kt jet pushing through ND as it rotates through the base of
the upper low, providing forcing for ascent this afternoon over
central and eastern North Dakota. Current SPC slight risk area
includes the James River Valley, with much of central ND along
and east of the Highway 83 corridor in the marginal risk.
Some guidance suggests that convection may develop/move into
southwest/south central ND late morning or early this afternoon
and tracking northeast. Other guidance suggests this early
convection remains limited and holds off on developing stronger
convection until late this afternoon, mainly over the James
River Valley and points east. Either way, with sufficient bulk
shear situated over central ND, there will be the potential for
at least isolated severe storms, possibly late morning, but
right now the thinking is mainly this afternoon into early
this evening, before exiting the James River Valley. The main
threats look to be golfball sized hail and 60 mph winds within
the slight risk area that includes the James River Valley. Most
of central ND will have a slightly lower hail threat (ping pong
ball sized hail) and 60 mph winds. There also remains an
isolated tornado threat. This looks to be mainly the far
southern James River Valley for a brief period late this
afternoon. Guidance is fairly similar in bringing convection to
an end over the CWA by around 02 UTC, if not earlier. Current
ongoing convection, and additional morning convection, the
potential for low fog and stratus this morning, and the eventual
position of the frontal boundary this afternoon could also
provide limiting factors for convection today, especially
outside of the James River Valley, where instability will not be
as strong. The threat for locally heavy rain remains, especially
over the James River Valley, but as the upper level impulse
wraps around the upper low, we will see more of an easterly
progression in the thunderstorm activity this afternoon, rather
than training cells when the upper low was nearly stationary.

We see a bit of a dry period Wednesday night and Thursday
morning as drier air and brief upper level ridging propagate
across the forecast area in the wake of the exiting upper low.
We then see another chance of showers and thunderstorms late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a shortwave eminating
from the eastern Pacific moves into the area. There is currently
a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over portions of the
far southwest Thursday. Confidence in the severe threat on
Thursday is low at this time, with more favorable instability
setting to our south. Some of the Cams that go out that far do
show convection brushing the far southwest, while others do not.
Will wait for another model run to ramp up any messaging for
severe storms on Thursday in the far southwest.

As we head towards the weekend, it doesn`t look to be completely
dry, but for the most part Friday and Saturday will see more sun
than clouds and the threat for severe weather currently looks to
be on the low side. There is a signal for a severe weather
threat Saturday night as another Pacific system moves across the
northern Rockies and into southern Canada. SPC has highlighted a
portion of western ND in their Day 4 outlook. We`ll see how this
plays out as we get closer to the weekend.

In general, temperatures remain near normal values through
Friday, then warm as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions to begin the 12Z TAF period with isolated showers
and a few thunderstorms in the southwest and in the northern
James River Valley. There were indications of possible MVFR
ceilings from guidance last night but as of yet no low clouds.
However, with out low T/TD spreads, would not be surprised to
see at least a period of MVFR ceilings this morning in the
southwest and central ND, although not certain enough to add a
MVFR ceiling attim. We do expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms today moving west to east across the forecast
area. Any storms could produce MVFR-IFR ceilings/visibilities
in heavy downpours, along with gusty and erratic winds. The
highest threat for severe storms looks to be around KJMS and in
the James river Valley this afternoon, but anywhere along and
east of the Highway 83 corridor could see a strong to severe
storm. Skies clear and winds become westerly tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH