109
FXUS63 KBIS 301846
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
146 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and fog return overnight, lingering into Saturday.

- Near to above average temperatures are favored through the
  middle of next week. High temperatures will be dependent on
  low cloud cover the next few days.

- Low chances for light rain and drizzle tonight through Sunday,
  then high chances for rain Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Current surface analysis places low over the Great Basin nudging
towards the northern Rockies, while high is situated over the
southern Prairie Provinces into the upper Midwest. Upper level
analysis places low off the Pacific Northwest, with ridge over
the central/northern plains. Over our area, light easterly flow
is keeping some low clouds/fog anchored over parts of southwest
North Dakota. The fog has remained dense over far southwest
North Dakota where a Dense Fog Advisory remains in places
through 1PM MDT, but some improvement in visibility has been
noted on area webcams and observations so plan to let it expire
at that time.

For the rest of today into tonight, low level southeast flow
remains in place, with clouds and some fog returning from
southwest to northeast overnight. A variety of weak waves
lifting ahead of aforementioned upper trough may bring a few
weak light showers to the area, in addition to some possible
drizzle given the light upslope moist low level flow.

As we get into tomorrow, light upslope flow continues with
clouds lingering over the area. Main concern with this is its
influence on temperatures as think latest NBM is much too
optimistic with its high temperature forecast. Therefore, have
leaned towards NBM10 which still may be too optimistic over the
south central/southwest, but at least it starts the downward
trend. Have also kept the potential for fog in the forecast
through mid-day. Given the light southeasterly low level flow
continuing into Saturday night and Sunday morning, have
returned the fog throughout the area.

Precipitation chances will be on a significant increase Sunday
night into Monday as the aforementioned upper low works its way
over the Rockies, and a surface low spins up to the lee of the
Central Rockies and ejects into the central plains. This looks
to bring widespread precipitation to the area, though
temperature profiles remain warm enough so this should remain
liquid. A few rumbles of thunder from an elevated thunderstorms
can not be ruled out over southern portions of the area.

Thereafter some questions remain with the forecast as guidance
has been leaning towards ridging, but some ensemble members lean
towards a bit more active pattern. With that said, temperatures
look to remain seasonal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

LIFR visibility and ceilings will continue over southwest North
Dakota early this afternoon, before improving to MVFR by late
afternoon. Overnight, ceilings will again deteriorate from
southwest to northeast. Conditions will deteriorate to IFR
levels over western and southern North Dakota, and LIFR over far
southwest North Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM MDT this afternoon for NDZ040-
043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS