024
FXUS63 KBIS 011939
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
239 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible today and Tuesday.
  A few storms may be strong to severe.

- Cooler weather with highs in the 60s and 70s anticipated mid
  to late week. Overnight lows in the 30s and 40s also forecast.

- Areas of wildfire smoke may also return on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Currently, remnants from a stationary mid/upper level low across
the Dakotas/Great Plains continues to generate isolated
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across central and
the eastern areas of the state this afternoon. However, other
activity randomly popping up west as well. Enough low level
helicity and strong low level CAPE to result in a chance for a
few funnel clouds southeast, as already reported in LaMoure
county.

We expect most precipitation chances to move east with time
today into this evening as we lose daytime heating, leading to
a mostly clear sky across western and central North Dakota
tonight. However, increasing northerly flow will usher in
wildfire smoke from Canada, so hazy conditions are
expected/possible for later tonight into the day Tuesday across
the area. Low stratus also possible north. In addition, the
chance for northern lights are forecast to push south into the
northern CONUS tonight and somewhat Tue night, but unsure what
if any impact the increasing smoke will have.

Truly the main story for the forecast period (besides the
lingering chances for strong convection today and tomorrow) will
be a refreshing shot of Arctic air later Tuesday into Wednesday
as a strong mid level low surges south across central Canada.
Daytime highs in the 60s to mid 70s and overnight lows in the
30s and 40s are forecast to end the week. Minimal precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Mainly VFR conditions with a light south-southwest wind through
this evening, becoming westerly overnight. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be limited across mainly the east today
into this evening. Left in a PROB30 group for KJMS. Patchy fog
again possible tonight into Tuesday morning, although confidence
is low at this time. Wildfire smoke is also expected to return
to the area from north to south late tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH