213
FXUS63 KBIS 161404
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
904 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers to be found this morning into this afternoon.
  Areas of wildfire smoke may return this afternoon through
  tonight across the west.

- Well below average temperatures through Thursday, with near-
  record cold highs in the 60s on today.

- Dry tonight and Thursday, then medium chances for showers and
  thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday, and again
  Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Surface high pressure is centered in the southern Canadian
Prairies north of the forecast area, with an area of light rain
ongoing across the south central. An additional swath of rain
extends across far southwest North Dakota and into the
northwest, slowly drifting east-northeast. Made some minor
adjustments to POPs with this update otherwise going forecast
looks good.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Limited updates needed this morning. A band of light rain is
progressing from west to east this morning, with some isolated
to scattered activity possible behind it. Chances for
thunderstorms are low today as there is limited instability in
the area. Overall made some minor changes to PoPs based on
current radar trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Shortwave trough will move across the state today bringing
chances for showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.
Surface high will bring a steady northeast flow, that may erode
away these showers as they move eastward through the day. Thus
confidence in shower chances is higher in the west than the east
and north today. Cold air associated with the surface high will
bring cool highs only in the 60s today, perhaps bringing some
record cold highs. Northerly flow may also return some wildfire
smoke this afternoon through tonight, mainly in the west.
Surface high settles in for tonight, clearing skies and bringing
cold temperatures in the 40s. NBM 10 percentile does have some
lows in the upper 30s in the normal cool spots across the
southwest, perhaps bringing some potential for patchy frost
tonight. Confidence is low at this time. Light winds and
clearing skies may also bring some patchy fog tonight, although
dryer conditions may help limit this fog potential. High exits
to the east on Thursday, still bringing a mainly dry day. A
return to breezy southerly flow will also warm temperatures
slightly back into the 70s. A passing wave combined with a low
level jet could then bring some showers and thunderstorms
Thursday night. Although shear is high, instability is somewhat
limited and SPC currently does not have any severe weather risk.
CSU-MLP is hinting at a small hail potential Thursday night
with the low level jet, so something to monitor going forward.

If overnight or morning showers and thunderstorms can materials
Thursday night into Friday morning, they should push eastward
later Friday morning, giving a mainly dry and slightly warmer
day to the CWA. This weekend then sees warming temperatures with
a return to southerly flow. Saturday currently has limited PoPs
during the day. Saturday night through Sunday sees the next
broad trough move into the region returning chances for showers
and thunderstorms. CSU-MLP putting at least low chances for
severe weather during this time period. Clusters showing this
broad trough looks to stick around into early next week, with a
surface low developing lee of the northern Rockies. This is
providing a forecast of warmer temperatures in the 80s, lows in
the mid 50s to mid 60s, and near daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. CSU-MLP continues the low chances for severe
weather as well into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Abundant cloud cover along with some rain showers will be found
this morning. The better chances for rain will come from KDIK to
KBIS to KJMS and south, with at least some VCSH in the KXWA
area. Mainly VFR conditions are expected, although lower cloud
ceilings and rain may bring some brief MVFR conditions. Rain
and clouds go on a diminishing trend later today through
tonight, with VFR conditions expected. North northeast winds
will be found today, going light and variable tonight, then
becoming southerly for some western sites by early Thursday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin