587
FXUS63 KBIS 100541
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
  the upcoming work week. Isolated strong to severe storm is
  possible across the south Monday and Tuesday.

- Near to a bit below average temperatures through the first
  part of the week, then a cooling trend for the later part of
  the week.

- Wildfire smoke aloft could continue into mid week, with patchy
  smoke mixing down to the surface at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A few light showers continue to move through northern parts of
the area. Going forecast remains in good shape so no changes
needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 942 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Instability has decreased across the region, thus convection
has trended down. No major updates needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Remnants of an MCS up in southern Saskatchewan continues to
churn and move eastward kicking off some convection along the
International Border. Decent shear will sustain storms, but the
lack in instability could prevent storms from becoming strong
to severe. Daytime heating continues to diminish reducing
instability across the region. The new CAMs model runs do bring
some of those storms across the northwest, due to the elevated
shear sustain them, however the previous CAMs run did not have
storms making it very far across the northwest. So confidence
remains low on whether the storms will sustain themselves and
increase in strength. No updates are needed to the forecast at
this time as the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Currently there is the remnants of an MCS in southern Canada
moving eastward. Meanwhile, weak elevated showers are starting
to form across a stalled boundary in the south. The noon SPC
update has trimmed the Slight Risk somewhat across the area as
this morning`s CAMs have not been as aggressive with
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Previous
CAMs had the Canadian MCS being the nudge for convection in the
north later this afternoon, with thunderstorms then pushing
east and southward through the evening. This MCS may be a touch
further north than previous forecast which could limit this
scenario from playing out. Additionally, lower CAPE values in
the north are being observed yet strong shear is still in place.
If a thunderstorm can develop in the north, skinny CAPE
profiles will limit the severe threat despite higher amounts a
shear. If these northern storms can develop late this afternoon,
then monitoring their progressing south and eastward will be
worthwhile as they enter into a more unstable area with modest
to high shear. If this MCS does not kick off convection this
afternoon, then the area will have to wait for the associated
mid level wave to move through this evening and possibly
tonight and interact with the mentioned stalled boundary. There
is high uncertainty this wave would be enough to overcome some
capping in place. Thus the severe threat at least through this
evening remains conditional and will have to continue to
monitor. There still remains enough shear and decent hodographs
for rotating cells this evening, thus kept the hazards the same
for messaging. Tonight, elevated instability continues to
increase while shear remains modest to high. The stalled
boundary may get pushed slightly eastward as the mentioned mid
level wave move through. This could bring some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms as a result. CAPE profiles
are somewhat skinny, although high amounts of shear could bring
some isolated severe hail through the night. High DCAPE and 0 to
3 KM shear could also keep the 70 mph wind threat through the
night. This still remains dependent on enough lift to initiate
thunderstorms, which remains uncertain at this time. Otherwise
look for lows tonight in the 50s.

Monday and Tuesday are similar weather days as the west
northwest flow aloft remains along with the mentioned stall
frontal boundary as well as an inverted surface trough in the
west. The result will be similar, near normal, temperatures
each day in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s.
Depending on timing of weak waves in this flow combined with
instability along the stalled boundary, near daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms are possible each day. SPC also
showing an isolated severe thunderstorm risk across the south
each day mainly where the better instability and shear line up.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat with any
isolated thunderstorms to start the week. Westerly flow aloft
could also linger wildfire smoke aloft early to at least mid
week. Patchy smoke at the surface may be found during the day as
a result.

Mid to late week, the trend remains for a cooling trend with
continued near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some
model runs bringing increased precipitation across the area with
these shower and thunderstorm chances. This could stem from
increased PWAT values as a surface low in the central plains
attempts to bring increased gulf moisture. Meanwhile the flow
aloft could switch to southwest, bringing a more unsettled
pattern. The concerns with this are some clusters showing the
moisture gets cut off to our south and/or the unsettled
southwest flow pattern does not fully materialize. This would
bring a less active forecast and perhaps not as much of a cool
down. Something to monitor going forward. Either way this
pattern would also bring less fire weather concerns for the
upcoming week given increased RH values, cooler temperatures,
light winds, and chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Occasional isolated thunderstorms are expected over the area
from time to time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...JJS